THE WORLD BANK GROUP ARCHIVES PUBLIC DISCLOSURE AUTHORIZED Folder Title: Research Projects - General 1975 / 1977 Correspondence - Volume 3 Folder ID: 1064732 Date: 9/8/1975 – 4/29/1976 ISAD(G) Reference Code: WB IBRD/IDA DEC-01-02 Series: Correspondence and Files Created for Research Projects in Support of Operations (Operations Policy Files) Sub-Fonds: Records of the Office of the Vice President, Development Policy (VPD) and the Development Policy Staff Fonds: Records of the Office of the Chief Economist Digitized: 8/16/2018 To cite materials from this archival folder, please follow the following format: [Descriptive name of item], [Folder Title], Folder ID [Folder ID], ISAD(G) Reference Code [Reference Code], [Each Level Label as applicable], World Bank Group Archives, Washington, D.C., United States. The records in this folder were created or received by The World Bank in the course of its business. The records that were created by the staff of The World Bank are subject to the Bank’s copyright. Please refer to http://www.worldbank.org/terms-of-use-earchives for full copyright terms of use and disclaimers. THE WORLD BANK Washington, D.C. © International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / International Development Association or The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org PUBLIC DISCLOSURE AUTHORIZED RESEARCH PROJECTS - GeneralVol TTT I DECLASS1.F1ED wiTH Rt~ · ~-- CTIONS WBG Archives FOAM NO. 635 (7-74) Thisfileisclosedasof .:JO. !l?~IL .49::/(p • __.,e~zv:~=:::-::__ __ For further correspondence, please see _ ___JYt_(_j,06?:k.-..!.. RECORDS MANAGEMENT SECTION Revis_ed draft . \ \ April 1976 \ ~rdy Stoutje~dijk \ -_: \ l \ 'l v /\!_l_ _!\gcnda for Urban Research 1. Tntroduction. . - The pr~j_j\ction Program and Interim RE:_Eort of the Urban Povert y !_ask G..£_o~ (hereafter, Ihe Action Progr~ ) included among its reconrrnenda- tions. the development of an urban research program, f or st1bmission to the Bank' s Re se arch Commitlee in May or June, 1976. Thi s p aper presents an o rie nt a tion f or su c h a program, covering the f ul l rang e of research on u r h a n problems, but stressing within thi s field the ma tt e rs affecting povert y . The paper is designed to s e rve as a bnckg round against which individual and mor e detailed rese a rch proposals can be drawn up, and . e va 1 uate d in I . terms o f t1e1_r r e 1 ative . . importance. */ - The organization of the pap e r is as f ollows. After a brief intro- ductory statement re garding the urban pove rty problem, an orientation for a Bank- s ponsored urban research program is pres e nted. Against this background, a research program i s drawn up consi.sting of two main components, one that is direc tly related to a nd supportive o f The Action Program , and one that a ddr e s s e s itself to the question o[ a lt e rnative strategies of poverty a llevi a tion. In a final section, a res e arch strategy is suggested that repre s ents a balanced portfolio of components of the research program. No attempt has .been made in this pap e r to suggest an assi gnment of ··Departmental responsibilities for the execution of the research program. */ This paper has bene[ited from discussions with colleagues from CPS and DP S Departments. Moreover, the documents produced by the Urban Poverty Task Force have been used as background material. - 2 - 2. Urban poverty and ~he Bank's potential role. Most of the developing countries have expe rienced unprecedented rates o f urban population growth over the past few decades, both due to migration from the rural areas and to natural growth of the urban population. Generally, the growth rate of the urban labor force has been higher than .the growth rate of productive job opportunities in the urban areas , and open unemployment and widespread low productivity employment prevail. As a resultf a proportion of the urban population, widely varying by city, lives in absolute poverty, as exhibited by such characteristics as malnutri- tion, low life expectancy , inadequate housing conditions, and poor educa- tional s tandard s . Most LDC cities have not been able to generate the resources that are required to provide a minimum standard of urban infrastructure and basic rublic services to the e ntire urban population. Available evidence suggests that it i s primarily the urban poor that lack adequate access to such hasic s e rvices. The latter furt her depresses real income levels of the poor; moreover, it quit e possibly limits the scope for improving their income- earning potential by its negative effects on productivity (e.g. poor health, poor ed ucational background) as well as on mobility (poor public transport). Aga inst this background, the Bank has decided to initiate a lend- ing program that ·is specifically designed to contribute to the alleviation of the urban poverty probiem in LDCs, thus complementing action previously initiated to achieve similar objectives in the rural areas. A set of r ecommendations for Bank action in the immediate future in this regard is contained in The Action Program. This entails shifts in the lending program, - 2 - 2. Urban 2overty and ~he Bank's po~ential role. Most of the developing countries have experienced unprecedented rates or urban population growth over the past few decades, both due to migration from the rural areas and to natural growth of the urban population. Generally, the growth rate of the urban labor force has been higher than the growth rate of productive job opportunities in the urban areas , and open unemployment and widespread low productivity employment prevail. As a result, a proportion of the urban population, widely varying by city, lives in absolute poverty, as exhibited by such characteristics as malnutri- tion, low life expectancy, inadequate housing conditions, and poor educa- tional standards. Most LDC cities have not been able to generate the resources that are required to provide a minimum standard of urban infrastructure and basic public services to the e ntire urban population. Available evidence suggests that it is primarily the urban poor that lack adequate access to such basic services. The latter further depresses real income levels of the poor; moreover, it quite possibly limits the scope for improving their income- earning potential by its negative effects on productivity (e.g. poor health, poor educational background) as well as on mobility (poor public transport). Against this background, the Bank has decided to initiate a lend- ing program that ·is specifically designed to contribute to the alleviatipn of the urban poverty problem in LDCs, thus complementing action previously initiated to achieve similar objectives in the rural areas. A set of recommendations for Bank action in the immediate future in this regard is contained in The Action Program. This entails shifts in the lending program, - 3 - with l esser emphasis being placed on transportation and power projects, while increasing the share o[ total lending to education and urban projects, as we11 as to DPC operations. Moreover, within sectors, greater emphasis is proposed to be placed on projects and project design that directly or i.ndirec tly . benefit the urban poor. A surmnary of the main points of The c_ i\_ a_m is given in an annex to this paper. tion_ _?ro__g_r_ 1. An orientation for an urban poverty research program. :!'_he Action _Program has been drawn up in the knowledge that it is not entirely clear at this stage which types of projects and policies are the most appropriate in any given set of circumstances, and which priorities should be attached to certain forms of action. lt is quite clear, however, tlrnt Lile objective of al l e viatin~ urban poverty in LDCs has become one of the exp licit targets of Bank Group policy, and that changes of emphasis in the lending program should result. The Action Program outlines the general direction of thes e changes which have been accepted by the Bank's management. Under these ci r c umstan ces, a Bank-sponsored research program must se rve a dual purpose. ('j_I_•s l , i.t must be supportive of the types o f action that have been identified in Jhe Action Program as appropriate elements of an urban development strategy for the Bank. Second , it must attempt, through improvements in our understandin g of the nature and scope of urban poverty, to improve· upon the formulation of policies and pr ograms to alleviate urban poverty . 'l'he fi_r_st component of the program includes research on issues t l1<1t e1 nergc Pro_g_ram_ ;ire being implemented. as eleme nt s of J~h_e_ i\ctj_1111t1·i,·s, pc ,verly (rur ;tJ and ui-bn n ) Ls so w:i dcs1~ n ,ti , and re s o11rces avai] a hlc for its allPviation are so limited , that suhstuntial improvements can not he expected in the near rutur e ; tl, c main e mphas Ls her e might hav ,· to be placed on pop11lation control measure s , c ombined with policies that pro- motP e(ju Lt.able C.'conomic g rowth. rn the li. g lit or th ese' qu cs ti.on s , Lt wo11ld app~ar that research on t il e s t.r .1t1~g j ,· i ss 11c·~: assnciatcJ with urhnn p0v e rty polici es sh ould focus fir st •>f ;1ll , 111 obtai.ni.ng o. b c t l c·r 11t1dcrsl'.anc.ling or Ll10 natur e and sco~ _of urban 1overL_y in _I.DC_' s; noL only would Lh i.s mor e dc •tailed insight into the urhan ; t 't I .;; 1 J') 1 u 1• 111 1 1 , 11, ,v pr ec .i.i;l' ,1] , jecti 1 t·s and oentif y' - 14 - the most effective instruments for poverty alleviation, but also it would provide a hasis for comparison with the dimensions of poverty elsewhere in tile economy, tltus enabling the establishment of national priorities. Research a ddressing itself to this issue must assume a househ o ld orientation; specifically, it should address itself to the urban poor as consumers and as producers. Research focusing on the urban poor as producers should shed light on the way incomes are generat ed , in both the [ormal and the informal sector, and the potential for increas ed earning capacity, were opportunities avail- .ab l e . Insight into the skill and age structure of the urban poor is of obvious importance in this respect, as js th e ir access to complementary fac tors of production. Similarly, empirical information on the structure of wages and incomes by sector, skill class and age, and the functioning of the urban labor market, is important. In this connection, special atLcn tion should be paid to the informal sector, and its role within the urb an environment. One thing that is not clear in this context is whether a clear picture o[ the urban poor as producers can be obtained in isolation of Lhe rest of the urban economy, or whether a more comprehensive descrip- tion of rlw production side in the entire urban area is necessary. • irn i l :1ri -_, . ~·.1e;it(•1· 1 knowi 11 l . 1 ,E ' 11f tin ' 111· J,;111 l'''•' ' , ts co nsumt•rs i c; rn •,·,• "s; 11·y for pol1c·y cl c1; ig11. The ronsumrt i on pntt0rns of the urban poor ,1rv n 11 obvinus s tar1· ing poi.nt l,ir tlH' dl ·:~ i.gn of suhsidy and price policies Lli:11 ;iim [It improv t'm nls tn s t nnd[lrtis nf living, ;1nd / or r hnnges in consumption p:Ht"ri1 s . Tl1ey al :;o pr ovide .1 basi.s l"nr q11antl[ying tlH~ scope of the poverty , 1, ii·, · • · 1 ; I · v · 11 111 p: ir· i i '. :, · ' · ,. 1 I c rn : : ; , 11 n p r : "· l . · I · . h v c ,1 1 ,, • : (,v. 1 >r v I n s nm e re fer e n, , , - 15 - '0 11sum1>t ion hn s kct· r l' rlc>cting tlw poli.<'y ohjectivc of adequacy . 1 It should be emphasl %e .issume Lhat nol more than 10 man/ vct1rs, and between $1.5 and 2 million of Research Committee funds for the next three years, will he avai lable for the research program. 1.bis woulcl . be complemented by operational resources, including those available for the design, appraisal and implementation of specific projects and programs. A complete concensus of opinion on research priorities and re s our ce alloca tion will be hard to reach, and opinions are likely to diverge both in terms of topical priorities and with respect to the empirical - 17 - environment in which various approaches, projects and policies should be tested and implemented. However, on th e basis of the discussions that have taken place on this subject so far, it would appear that the following approach to priority setting may be acceptable to most. On a priori grounds , it would appear that research directly related to the implementation of the lending program as outlined in The ActioE.._ Program deserves highest priority. As this component of the res 0arch program follows from operational needs, the issue of geographical prior i ty does not come up. As a complement to this highly operational analytical effort, it would appear that very high priority should be attached to the study of urban interdependencies in the context of a city. The approach that could be . adopted is to f ocus on important components of the urban system separately, and to attemp t to combine these at a later stage into a comprehensive systems study of the urban economy. The testing of this framework should initially be carried out in the context of a medium-sized city in a Type I or Type II ,~ I country,-- on the basis of a detailed empirical investigation of the nature and scope of urban poverty in that city. The rationale f9r this preference i s th at an explicitly urban focus appears to make more sense in the case of such countries than in the case of either a Type III or Type IV country. Not only does the· urban poverty problem appear more tractable and manage- .. ab le in the former types of country, but also it is a large part of the total development problem. Moreover, the alleviation of urban poverty ap pe a r s feasible in terms of resource availabilities if only the countries in these cutegories were to attach greater priority to this objective. To ~/ See previous section for description of typology. - 18 - t he ex t ent the Bank is limited to playing the ro le of catalyst, therefo r e, foc us in g on these countries may be expe c t e d to have a relatively high payoff . I n contras t, an e xpl i citly urban f ocus in the cas e of the Typ e II1 an d I V countries appears l ess promis in g , at least in the short r un . In the ca se o f the Type IV countries , it is not c le ar what can be done to a ll e vi a t e widespread urban pove rty, in the light of even mo!e substanti a l rura l poverty and very limited resources available f or its alleviation. The po ve rt y problem in these countries should probably continue to be dealt with in the context of overall economic policies designed to lead to more e qui t a ble growth rather than in the form of undertakings with a specific urb an focu s . Moreover, research mentioned in the area of productive e mploy me nt generation may have to be re-emphasized with regard to these <'0 1m l r , es. The Type 111 countries (and pe rhaps to some extent also the Type II countri e s) could benefit considerably from research focusing on rur a l- urb a n i nte ractions, designed to improve our understanding of the motivation fo r mig ratory flows, and the capacity of the urban economy to accommodate mig rant s , in terms of productive employment opportunities, and the provision o f bas ic urban in f rast r ucture and services. This research may result in th e design of po·licies that can influence the form these rural-urban inter ac tions may take . Howeve r, a s a cons iderable amount of research in t his area i s currently underway, it would appear to deserve a somewhat l owe r p riority than th e issues mentioned above. Other priority subj e ct s , not i dentified above as deserving of - 19 - special emphasis in the program, 3re mostly research topics that are already incorporated in the Bank's research program. Although in many cases, the urban dimension could be more explicitly incorporated into the research des ign, nothing precludes this reorientation, and it was therefore felt that no special attention to such research ought to be drawr1 at this stage . As our understanding of the urban poverty problem grows, as a result of both operational work and research, the desirabi li ty of a more comprehensive reorientation of the research program will become clearer. ANNEX Action Program and Interim Report of Urban Poverty Task Group: A Summa.El. The Action l'ro.£.!:._am draws a Jistinction between Bank lending to the productive sectors and Bank activities in the infrastructure sectors . The former include mainly the work of the industrial units of the Bank Group (NDP, DFC~ and IFC), while the latter involve urban projects, transportation and power, as well as education, nutrition, and population. Regarding the productive sectors, The Action Program proposes that lending to large capital-intensive industrial projects should continue to receive strong support because of the alleged positive indirect employment effects of such projects. Moreover, the Bank should increase its lending to the more directly labor-absorptive branches of industry, i.e. those that have flexibility as to the technology that can be employed, and those that usually absorb large numbers of unskilled labor. Examples of the former are textiles, metal working, food processing; among the latter, transportation, construc- tion and assembly are mentioned. Particular attention is drawn to the small scale enterprise sector, and its potential for productive employment generation. Substantial increases in Bank Group lending to support and promote small scale enterprises are recommended. Furthermore, indirect lending to industry (through industrial estates and other non-Bank intermediaries) should re increased. Finally, it is suggested that the Bank should move into credit and technical assistance to the informal sector, for which the "basic urb1:mi.znti0n package" is proposed as the main vehicle; this package involves sites and services and slum upgrading projects. '' - 2 - ion Program defines the Bank program objectives for th~ ~e A<:__t_ }'_ infrastructure sectors for two sub-groups of activities . The first one i nvolves activities that can make a direct contribution to alleviating the conditions of the urban poor; included in this category are projects in basic urbanization, water supply and sewerage, education, nutrition and population. The second sub-group relates to those activities which through employment during construction and from facility expansion, and through providing inputs to the productive sectors make their contribution less directly; under this heading, transportation and power projects are specifi- cally mentioned . The Action Program proposes a very rapid increase in lending for basic urbanization package projects. These involve sites and basic services projects as well as slum upgrading projects. "It is this sector which, because of its 100% urban and 100% target population orientation, will bear a major responsibility for the infrastructure and informal sector side of the attack on urban poverty . " In addition to basic urbanization projects, the Bank should focus on institution-building, urban finance and effective land use management. Moreover, urban transportation projects would continue to be a feature of urban lending. In the l'ase of water supply and sewerage projects, the primary Bank objective should be to reach a high proportion of the urban target population (at least 50% of the personal consumption beneficiaries of new projects by FY78, as proposed in The Action Program). Although there will be no relaxation ol iinancial targets for the utilities involved,~/ it is proposed that by -:, ; I. e ., the principle of replicability will be maintained. - 3 - adopting lowtr st~ ndards of design, And servi ce, and pricing policies that would differentiate by consumers' ability to pay, it will be possiblE to meet the targets. tn this sector, a modest increase in net lending is proposed; the primary goal, however, is a redirection of effort so that the urban poor become to a greater extent the beneficiaries of projects in this area. A considerable increase in lending for Pducation projects is proposed. Attention is drawn to the need f or a balance between rural and urban enrollment ratios. The Action Program does not include specific re c omme ndations in the areas of nutrition and population; for the former, a modest lending program is proposed, while f or the latter, no increase in l c> ncling over plann e d rates is recommended . Profe sor Neal A . ob rts Osgoode l 11 La Sc ool York University 4700 Keele Street Down vi w, Ontario. 3J 2RS Canada I trust you will b live that, S nda~ fternoon or no, I was happy to h ar from you, es . ci 11 so to l rn that ou will be collabor ting with the Lincoln I titute on a project as exciting as the on ou d scribed. Due 1 rgely to th mound of material I accurately foresaw would be waiting for me yester ay, I have not e focused on cone tual ore irical a proache that might b worth con iuering. This I hope to do by th nd of thew ek. For no, I nclo e two-thirds of hat I romi d: the Bog t ca e tud of valorization charges, an nearly raft of the methodo- logical cha ter of Bill Doebele ' nd m urban land markets" monograph . The issing element, the Seoul/Gwangju, Korea case study of L nd eadjustment, is te or ril 'out of rint," o r initial run having been li ited to the number of color re reduc- tion we managed to get fin need by the B nk' Cart graphic Unit . Additional copies are in tn works, h iever, and on ill be forwar ed to you, I hope, before th end of this eek. As I 1 relaysd t you over th- phone, the o er tive Chapter II i " arly." It wa our f · r t tr. t setting non-t chnical language, a pects of urb n land market b in veloping countrie that heretofore had been tr ted either in mor technical detail or not t 11. ore gen tic experimenta- tion is need d to reduce work ble hybrid . In partic~l r, schewing geometry, I f iled ad ately to conve in words the full story of pro ucer's urplu fn public ervic (pp . 25-27), and n ed to sharpen e di cus ion of u ly lasti- .. citi s, agai.n without 1 p ing into jargon ( p. 2: - 23 ). · Th earlier treatment of work lace p tential and ite attributes announces o e of our pirical r ults that nill be \ ritt ·n noth r chapt I r I ' • • ... ~- .....~. I I .• I ) - • I .I ti, • .I',.,. I . . IT ." ~- .· .-~ . ·....... i ,· .I• - +.1 • ••. .,. ~ ~ f~ · ... -. 1 • ·- . ,1.--.. -, 1..-.-..... 1" II~- .~--: ••• _ ~ ~" ,... .. I r .... .i.- -' ... . I - ~.'...,. :; I ! ,... • ...- t .... •· - - ~.· .J I ·- .... - ~~ ii :ii • ~ . Dr. - 2 April 22, 1976 On Marc 8 s t u t ose for FI70-75. In extra.ct1n the nece - n arts. we overlooked th !"act that th b ;i; s for cal.culat1oos of Loan and Or d1ts changed since 1971 • e have o recalculate this table in which the n ar correct. ould pl e replace the previous table e sent with e attached? Sine rely• r I. -~ z. Husain ctin Divi Ch1 opulat-1 Projects Dep tlaent Attaolu;J.ents cc: Dr. Kanagaratnam, PNPD Mr. Messenger, FNPD (o/r) Mro Kang, PNPD Mrs. Domingo, FNPD Mro Omman, PNPD EXTERNAL REVIEW PANEL/PNP IZHusain/ccc ts • Rel ti ehip of the World G with anal D~ &nk - Atr1.c Dev t Bank (ADB) ment (ADF) ()per ttona - Ast.an Devel - nal rt 1974 the Inter- erican Devel • ! amar ts pre confer e with et the e 8 (na..i, ....... 24, t974) - Mr. 6, 1975) • Pres e - Bank Loans and IDA Credits b rpo e, Fit970•75 • B. King, VPO Sign ea B. B.- Kirtg ReEresentation Charges to External Research I think my position on this subject is substantially e ame as yours. Th re are two classes of expenditure which appear to be eligible: (a) Meals for consultants visiting the nk, but not Dank staff entertaining them. If the consultants paid for their own meal, it would be on the Research budg t via their expense account. (b) A modest "function" on the ceca ion of a conference. 2. I think that administrative officer d artments should b able to police this in n informal w at their discretion. If there are any impending excesses, they can refer to me, ut I certainly don't want to be involved in general. 3. Does this conform with your memo of April 19? It is not clear whether you xclude the individual meals I do not think it matters too rnuch s the amounts would .~--- •. I I r • normally b • .' ., -w- -.: 1_ ... ~ . • '!IC ... - cc: Mrs. Cleav • "... -t., iss Gary il Mr. Lowther .. ,. . p, • 1 • 1 1r • Grimes J • .. - _ij;:_~ Mrs. Hazzah .~ ~,.. -:7. .. BBKing:gm I _,. ....., • i.' I - . J • . .... ' - ' ~ ~ .... - t.. ··- ... ... • • 1'7 . !2JYlFT .,. . MC:jd ,_ . Outline for a Rep6rt on: ORGANIZATION AND EXPERIENCE OF A MONITORING AND EVAIDATION UNIT IN MAURITIUS 1. The organization of the Project Monitoring/Reporting System. - Description of existing system in DWC (organizational .set-up). - Chart. - Reporting forms utilized in DWCo ~ How does the Project Unit check the physical progress of various project components? . - 'Ihe. functions of the VDO in monitoring and supervising the works done by the DWCo 'lhe functions (if any) of the Project Evaluation . Unit in the process of Project reporting (as distinct from evaluation). - Is that a checking function? (For instance, checking the accuracy of site reports). To what extent? - Is that a collating function, consolidating r .,, to p:8pare the Quarterly information in. oretailed plan, chart desirable, if possible. Attach, please, the Tenns of Reference of the Uni~. - Please feel free to add anything you would th:ink as .- being significant. Be specific, give details, facts and FORM NO . 27 WORLD BANK/ IFC ~IBRD (11-75) OUTGOING MESSAGE FORM 01DA (TE LE GRAM /CABLE/TELEX) D IFC D ICSID TO: PROFESSOR CHARLES COOPER DATE: APRIL 21, 1976 UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX BNl 9RF ORIGINATOR'S EXT.: 4235 COUNTRY: ENGLAND CLASS OF Ig_ c__ SERVICE: CABLE NO. & TEXT: VERY GLAD PAPER ON TECHNOLOGY IS ON WAY HERE STOP REGARDING RESEARCH PROPOSAL COMMA DEADLINE FOR SUBMISSION WRITTEN PROPORAL IS MAY TWENTY FOR DECISION AT JUNE SEVENTEEN RESEARCH COMMITTEE MEETING COMMA PROPOSAL DEADLINE FOR FOLLOWING MEETING IS EARLY JULY STOP OUR RECEIPT YOUR PROPOSAL BY FIRST MAY NECESSARY IF WISH DECISION IN JUNE STOP WHETHER SUBMIT FOR JUNE OR LATER DECISION COMMA YOUR VISIT HERE IN LATE MAY OR EARLY JUNE TO SEMINAR TECHNOLOGY PAPER EXCELLENT TIMING AS REGARDS PROPOSAL REGARDS WESTPHAL NOT TO BE TRANSMITTED REFERENCE: AUTHORIZED BY (Name): LEWestphal:mm L. E. Westphal DRAFTED BY: DEPARTMENT : L. E. Westphal Development Economics CLEARANCES AND COPY DISTRIBUTION: w SECTION BEL ow, o R USE OF CABLE SECTION CHECKED FOR DISPATCH : PINK - Fi le Copy; WH ITE · Trans mittal Copy; Y EL LO W · Bill Copy ') ~L~\ I fl 6 l ~A .! ••• . ' ,. . - ~ .... I -. ,. .. -_ l' A I - ""...:.. t- - '-: . • .... . ... .,..,,. _.. T I. ., -~ (l ~ • r• 1·• "1 ~ ·Yi ~· I.•. : ~~.: T. ,, ·· r- r '"'l,. t r, Jo I ,, ..! ~· :.. • .i.. • p r-" I .. .~ , ~ .... ,. ... . . . "'I II • " I ~ -i" \.,., ~ I 1, f4f I", - : .., • " - ..:. '· .., < .. r •. I I> llii ,. ~- •.r-~ ., -- I - ;; - .... .. w,i!. - .. -·. ., . . . . :,,. - ~ .I I I .,;: • • I .- -11r.. • • ~ L •.-. '. ,I Ill'.· '--, ~ - ...--:- • ·~ I, - .... I .Jo .,,.. - .. ........ la • ,. - ~ .,;-~ - · 1111 I~"!' , . 1• 1 '- I .. ... - 1.. . . .&J:-"'t . - . ;.) ' ... .: •- . .I . . •- . to:= 1... I ,1 • ,C- l ·..... .April 20, 1976 .. • : I ... ·,I I r 1' I " . -. Mr. David Segal - ' .- .-· . ', .... . . . r~ . , Depart.ment e>f Ea:>D.Oln1cs Oberlm College 1· ....' ... . ... I,, .. Cl>erlln, Chio 44074 · r ...... _. .- I• ... .. · Deaf ·Mr. ·_Sega'l;. t • ... , .... ; ,,. ·- ,· "''.. rll , ... ' . .I .. r-- .... -, ........ ; '\.· I I ~ ..__ - I I - -i'hank you your chapter and find I have one or tvo points of criticism which 7011 £or your lettez, ot March 2.3. ;il have looked through . i •· • r • . may or may not wish to take into account. · 1 1 1" ... . ., •• ' . .1 - I ,.',.. r ~ • I ), Page 10 ....· i think you ought to dietinsuiel:i.,.:whethez: you are · ... talking about theory or practi~eh .:t . here is no such thing . ai, , perfect in!ormatioii, it is an ideal etate .. , 1' ,,. ..; and is uaeful only !or theoretical construction. ... ......,.. ·- .... It ia certainly not a neceaa&J"y condition !or .,,. • ·~ ~ 1 1 II 111arginal coat pricing l .,. • t., ,I. ·,_ ,• - -"' • 11 "'I ( . Page 2 ..tavor of queuing, because ·..1 i:_~ ;-r-i . J .- · I .f'1nd that Yl)\lr argument :tii· • .. 1, 11 of equity comiderationa, is rather mieleading. The .- 1 • • • w:illingJJeea to queue doee not merely depend upon the · wage per hour but it is also 1.nf'luenced by the income ~ .. elasticity of demand for the commodity or sel"V'ices. 'Uthe income elasticity ie very high and the price 'l·;._ . elasticity is veey low, then of course the relat:ivel;v' ... 'i rich will queue and secure the lion' e share ot a given quantity of aenicea. Your statement that time pricea are similar to a tax on wages is wrong. I think these two points illustrate some of the difficulties I had with your manuscript. , '· '. Yours sincere3:¥, A. A.. Wal tera d' ' I "' PS1 Mr. Roth ie writing to you separately. ., -.. • . _. > ..... ', ) Ms. Rachel Weaving, VPD April 20, 1976 Benjamin B. King, VPD Signed B. B. Kirr:r RIDEP 1. My own view of this program i that it should be spread broad and thin: (i) 'Broad" meaning a lot of institution, most of those uggested by Regions etc. (ii) "Thin" meaning very few documents, d stributed as automatically a pos ible (i.e. through Ann Swift and/or Doris Bornstein). I very much doubt that th mutual benefits of exchanging lot of unsolicited stuff are very high. I haven't heard many cheers for RIDEP. 2. Accordingly, I would prepare t•o draft letters, one for existing RIDEP in titutions, another for candidates: (i) The candidate letter would ask whether they would like to be on our exchange list. The exchange would consist of the list in your 2(b) but without divisional papers on our part and th sort of thing suggested in your 2(a) on th ir p rt. (ii) The existing-institution lett r would explain that, owing to the gre ter scope of RIDEP, we are trying to confine exchange of docum nts to those specifically requested on both sid s. Consequently, we are suggesting that we follow the rocedure in (i) above. In other words, a polite withdrawal. 3. ~1en we get lists, we turn them over to Research Files for notification in pecial list of documents which can be obt ined on request, if anyone is sufficiently interested, as you uggest. 4. I .uggest you discuss with Orville next we~ and, if you agree, draft letters. cc: Mr. Grimes BBKing:gm Jaycox, TRU April 20, 1976 Mona Hazzah, VPD ~ Projects Status Reports I would appreciate it if you could have the attached Status Report forms completed and sent to my office (F1219 ) not later than Friday, May 14 . The information provided in the forms hould be current as of April 30, 19 76 .Listed below are the project numbers, and the name of the r esponsible staff member, for which Status Reports are required. I am attaching copies of the March xternal Computer Printout where necessary. Project Code Responsible Staff Member 670-26 B. Coukis 670-27 s. Agarwal/P. Fossberg 671-13 s. Agarwal 671-14 B. Mitchell 671-15 s. Basta/B. Coukis 671-16 G. Beier 671-20 P. Watson/E. Holland Attachments Mr. Rathnam (with attachments ) Mr. Y. Rovani~ PBP April 20, 1976 Mona Hazzah, VPD Research.Projects Status Reports I would appreciate it if you could h ve the attached Status Report forms completed and ent to my office ( 1219) not later than Friday, May 14. The information provided in the forms should be current as of April 30, 1976. List d below are the project numbers, and the name of the responsible staff member, for which Status Reports are required. I am attaching copies of the March External Research Computer Printout where necessary. Project Code Re wnsible Staff Member 670-67 R. Sheehan 670-76 J. Warford 671-11 J. Warford 671-12 H. Shipman Attachments cc: Miss P. Peter (with attachments) MH:gm Mr. R. Gulhati, ECDDR April 20, 1976 Mona Hazzah, VPD ~W Research Projects Status Reports I would appreciate it if you could have the attached Status Report forms completed and sent to my office (F1219) not later than Friday, ray 14. The information provided in the forms should be current as of April 30, 1976. Listed below are the project numbers, and the name of the responsible staff member, for which Status Reports are required. I am attaching copies of the March External Research Computer Printout where necessary. Project Code Responsib:l.e ember 670-43 J. Lowther 670-45 J. Lowther 670-90 A. Sant'Anna 670-96 J. Meerman 670-99 R. Moran 671-02 T. King 671-03 T. King 671-05 v. Prakash 671-06 R. Gulhati 671-07 L. Westphal 671-18 J. Linn 671-19 J. Simmons 671-24 s. Reutlinger 671-25 s. Bery 671-26 K. Zachariah 671-30 · L. Squire/S. Bose 671-31 R. Sabot 671-32 L. West hal 671-37 B. Renaud 671-38 D. Chernichovsky/R. Faruqee cc: Mr. Lowther (with attachments) Attachments MH:gm Mr. J. Duloy, ORCDR April 20, 1976 Mona Hazzah, VPD ~ Research Projects Status Reports I would appreciate it if you could have the attached Status Report forms compl ted and sent to my office (Fl219) not later than Friday, May 14. The information provided in the form hould be current a of April 30, 1976. Li ted belo are the proj ct numbers, and the nam of the re ponsibl staff rnemh r, for which Status Reports are required. I am attaching copies of the March External Research Computer Printout where necessary. Project Code Responsible Staff Member 670-01 B. Balassa 670-06 M. Ahluwali 670-23 Y. Rh e 670-24 E. Stoutjesdijk 670-73 G. Kutcher/P. Scandizzo 670-83 c. Chiswick 670-84 M. Ahluwalia 670-85 c. Chiswick 670-86 R. Norton 670-87 B. Balassa 670-94 M. Ahlu alia 671-08 c. Chiswick 671-09 E. Stoutjesdijk 671-17 P. Hazell 671-27 G. Pyatt 671-29 R. Norton 671-33 M. Selowsky 671-35 B. Balas a 671-36 c. Chiswick Attachment cc: Mis Gary (with attachments) MH:gm April 19. 1976 ink, Little, Villarzu, nd Ahluwalia on A ril 14. Mr. 2. to the R earch Co approve guided by concerns • Mr. B. B. Kin 111 b te t bl t Cl a red wi tli and cc: } sar. Bussink Little Villarzu Jayarajah cc: Mr. Ahluwalia Mr. Grimes a ...,~,..au:jd Mr. Pierre C sse, De artment April 15, 1976 Benjamin B. King, VPD Seminar on "Economics Staff" 1. I refer to your memo of April 13 on the above seminar, specifically to th remark about observers at the end of the waiting list: "Obs rvers - these may be incl d d only if the deman from projects epartments does not complet ly fill the intend d numb r of partici- pants." 2. That is putting i t a bit trong. I am not sure wh ther the decision stems fro a feeling that projects departments ought to have absolute priority or fro doubt that the course would b of much benefit to s. Weaving or both. I would like, in any c se, to reopen the question on both counts. 3. First, if th r er an alternative course for non-projects people in general (rather than another pecific group), th n I can see that you might want tor serve thi course solely for rejects staff. But, if th re i not, which is the case as far a I kn , then it does eem di criminatorx to treat other des rving cases s though thy wer travelling on a student ticket. 4. Ms. 'leaving is the only editor in the DPS. Her job i to try to make the v rious document co ing out of the DPS more intelligible not only to other economists, but to non-econo ists as well. It isn't easy, I c n assure you. On the one h nd, it ould help her to have so e mor training in economic so that she can com.~unicate with authors b tter. She pointed this out in her annual performance review and I agr ed. On the oth r hand, if e re to try to do something about dissemination in the Bank, it wo~ld obviou ly help an editor to now how non- economist react. I would hav thought that this ort of cours was golden opportunity for her, unles you have an lternative to suggest. lould you reconsider? cc: Messrs. Chenery, Karaosmanoglu, Dyck Ms.Waving BBKing:gm April 14, 1976 VPD Report, on I'm not sure wlia t is expected from me in answer to your memo of April 8, but perhaps a few observations on research as one of tile topics wouid an wer it best . I agree ~er:y much that the right subdivision is by topic ra er than by department. 2. I ~ave a feeling that the prejudice against researcli: , epitomized in -Blaxall's statements a l:5out its vulnerability, ought to be met fran ly and head on - not defensively. Some of the pre~udice is more ill-informed than it need be. Ma be that's partly our fault . If so, we should say so and say what we are doing about it. This coula be touched on at Thursday•s meeting. There was bound to be prejudice during the initial experimental period before any results emerged. There always will be some, but there ougn to be ress now or, at least, in the near future. I think one theme in your presentation could combine a reiteration of the length of the research production process, its riskiness and the difficulties of dissemination with tbe fact that we nave had successes. I am often impressed by lists of references which consist very largely of names inside tlie Bank o;r clo. ely associated with it. But that only goes so far. We have also reached the point. of implementation in several cases. I think the tiresome old cliohe about research being "Ivory Tower needs 11 a knock or two. It may have to be tower-bound, while it's being carried out and there's nothing much wrong with that. What is w~ong is, if it stays there. This 's where the Bank has a compar tive advantage, nicH r think we are exploiting, though not, like everything else, with ultimate perfection. ~. Another problem is partly semanti~ nd partiy substantive. ,.Research is not operationaln, another cliche, means from the regional point of view "I hav been s~ddled with a jo~ for which I don't have the resources nd want to use yours". So on-research is called operational research as op osed o i vory-towe:r r,esearch and why are we so unhelpful? · s. 1 ybe the time h come to devolve routin mission support to the r gions much a s devolved some subj cts. DPS should h iz s cial mi sion and sp cial application u rt, for hich th re i reason- ably 11 id ntified purpose and in whfch the op ortunity for research pplication can be gra P. d. It might be possible to plan this ort of thing with a .odicum of reci ion through the c P proces with an ya to futur ba ic mi sion. But th t mean aking more of th proce within DPS than an occasional ceremonial ap r nee at an RVP me ting. 6. Broadly s eaKing, I su o I am suggesting that the l i t of topics be organiz d around mental flow-cart, tarting with the deep t ort of inv stment and proceeding to th ultim t di pos r of th good vi op_er tion and policy ork. If it is agr ed t a t this i wh t 1c are sup o d to be doing, people can complain about th flo being rough, but thy hould top bitching bout the fact th t e are not doing om tlilng else. sr. Karaosmanoglu Duloy Gulh ti Haq uller ~ Tim BBKing:gm INTBAFRA WASH DC INCOMING TELEX ss APR 13 1976 IBRD A PARIS 870 DIAMOND REUR 716 AGREE WITH YOUR REMARKS RE BOTH PARA TWO AND FIVE OF DRAFT NOTE . / / R~AUD u5 _, ("") -- u,3- en ~ - :;.O r:-.c:: oz (...,) ::!0 OJ;>' Z:j ~ C) .._ .,. FROM: Hollis B. Cheneryl J~, Development Policy (}:-~ ~~-d,e SUBJECT: International Review Group on Research ....-YL..ft - ·../- ._ - 1 Z.-1 4 --.L-"° '. ' ~--.:;t-,-r--.J,:--=:---~ ,dlC-- 1n Population and Development '7-' , a _,,.-::r /. ~-......... F\ ~--,;~~-~~-----\. ~ j~ .. ,l'. / ·/7: ::;...' . -<< , ~~ cl-.. ~-~ _,,; . L/. I 1. You will recall that on December 8 I sentyoua / ~ ~..t\ memorandum (copy attached) on the plans of a group of national and international agencies for the establishment of this review group. Your reaction to the proposal that the Bank participate was positive and you indicated tllatr if the Bank were to participate, the contribution should c ome from the Research budget. 2. The pro posal was , therefore, submitted to t he Research Committee on March 25. It was reviewed on the basis of its resea:rch contribution according to our normal procedure. The Com_ rnittee felt that the objectives of the Group lacked focus and that this was not the most effective way of obtaining useful guidance. Furthermore, the Committee has consistently placed importance on "projectizing 11 research, which is impossible in this case, rather than giving core support and the like. While Committee members wish to record this opinion, based strictly on the merits in relatic.n ,..._. ·, i,, to research proposals, they r e cognize that the interagency negotiations on the proposal have a long history and that1 o n this account, the decision on participation may not be based on technical grounds alone. 3. I think we have to accept the fact that the Bank is morally committed. This is one of the follow-ups to cur original ini t iative in consulting with the other donor agencies. Moreover, there is some value in avoiding the complete exclusion of the Bank from an international venture on this subject, which may have some pay-of f in terms of di s s e mination, although I would not ascribe too much weight to this argument. However, there are still options as to the amount of the Bank's contribution. Other agencies have suggested that this be "proportionate" i.e. equal to ot~er major contributors such as · IDRC, Ford and Rockefeller - about $40,000. We could either: (a) contribute our "proportionate" share, or (b ) contribute a lesser amount (for example, half). 4. In the light of other claims on the r es e a rch buaget, I reconrrncnd that we a d opt option (b) , th e s p ecific .. Mr. Robert S. McNamara - 2 - April 9 , 1976 amount being $20,000 . I suggest this, first , because we are less than enthusiastic about the proposal , which has probably suffered from an effort to serve too many ends simultaneously. Secondly, the notion of proportionality is not particularly applicable , if one compares our Research budget with the resources available to other agencies for similar purposes. If this budget is earmarked in the future as the potential source of fund s for similar proposals, I propose to obtain the Research Committee's views at an earlier stage . .Attachment BBKing:gm , • Mrs. J. Landell-Mills April 12, 1976 Finance and Development Orville F. Grimes, VPD Proj·cts Recently Completed I attach a list of rese rch projects that have been, or are about to be, compl ted since our prior list was circulated. Projects on income di tribution, as you will observe, are promin nt among the ones co pleted in the last few months. Mr. Ahluwalia's paper on "Income Inequality: Some Dimensions of the Problem," on which a September 1974 article in Finance and Develop ent is largely based, is an outgrowth ol the" ize Distribution of Income" projoct (670-09). Another product of thi research -- his "Stylized Facts" paper -- could well be a prime candidate for a follo -up article. The Adelman/ Robinson material, though not terribly easy to recast in your format, should also be considered. 2. I hope that we can remain in periodic touch on potential contributions to Finance and Developm nt from the research program, if only by my letting you know of likely candidates as they become available. Please give me a call if you would like more infor~ation on the projects listed. Attachment cc: r. B. B. King Mr. llazzah Ms. Weaving OFGrimes :gm ff ANNEX r Project Project Code Title Supervisor Research Output 670-02 Country Programming Study: Chile J. Duloy 1) Clark, Peter B., and Foxley, A.R., "Target Shooting with a Multi-Sectoral Model," Ch. 13 · in· Analysis of Development Problems, R.S. Eckaus and P.N. Rosenstein-Rodan, Eds. Amsterdam : North-Holland Publishing .. • · ! Company, 1973 . 2) Clark, Peter B., Foxley, A.R., and Jul, A.M., "Project Evaluation within a Macroeconomic Framework," Ch.7 in Analysis of Development Problems, R.S. Eckaus and P.N. Rosenstein-Rodan, Eds. Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company, 1973. 670-06 Short-run & Long-run Influences M. Ahluwalia 1) I. Adelman ands. Robinson, A Wage and upon Income Distribution Price Endogenous General Equilibrium Model of a Developing Countrt: Factors Affecting the Distribution o Income in the Short Run. (Stanford University Press, forthcoming). 2) I. Adelman and S. Robinson, "A Wage and Price Endogenous Model for Planning Income Distribution Policy," (Development Research Center, August 1975; mimeo). 670-09 Size Distribution of Income M. Ahluwalia 1) Jain, Shail, Size Distribution of Income: Compilation of Data. Baltimore and London~ Johns Hopkins University Press, 1975. 2) Kipnis, Julio, "Size Distribution of Income: Bibliography of Basic Sources." Bank Staff Working Paper No. 217, September 1975. 3) Ahluwalia, Montek S., "Income Inequality: Some Dimensions of the Problem," Ch. I in Redistribution with Growth. London: Oxford University Press, 1975. 4) Ahluwalia, Montek s., "Income Distribution and Development: Some Stylized Facts," December 1975. To be published in Pupers and Proceedings of the American Economic Association, May 1976. 670-13 Evaluation of Alternative Methods A. Egbert 1) Egbert, Alvin c., "A Development Model for for Specifying Agricultural Sector the Agricultural Sector of Portugal," Development Strategies: Portugal World Bank Occasional Paper No.20, 1975. & Brazil 2) Egbert, Alvin C., and Kim, Hyung M., "A Regional Planning Model for the Agricul- tural Sector of Portugal"in Studies in Linear Programming, Harvey M. Salkin and Jahor Saha, Eds., Amsterdam and New York: North-Holland/American Elsevier, 1975 • ..,.,.. .- -----~'--- , - -· - ----- , '•. -,. ! ~ .. . . ·~ ' \, - 2 - Project Project Code Title Supervisor Research Output 670-13 (continued) Evaluation of Alternative Methods A. Egbert 3) Egbert , Alvin C., and Kim, Hyung M., for Specifying Agricultural Sector "Analysis of Aggregation Errors in Linear Development Strategies: Portugal Programming Planning Models." American & Brazil Journal of Agricultural Economics, May 1975, pp. 272-301. 4) Egbert, Alvin C., and Estacio, F., "Regional Agricultural Plann ing." In Study of Agricultural Systems, G.E.Dalton, Ed. London: Applied Sciences Publishers, 1975. 5) Ablasser, Gottfried, and Egbert, Alvin C., "Brazil Agricultural Sector Planning Model - an Application of Mathematical Regional Programming: A Summary Report," Agriculture and Rural Development Depart- ment, Working Paper No. 1, December 1973. 6) Egbert, Alvin C., and Kim, Hyung M., ~Statistical Annexes to a Development Model for the Agricultural Sector of Portugal, 4 vols.: Vol. I, 1968 Model Results; Vol. II, 1980 Model Results; Vol. III, Basic Resources and Input- Output Data, 1968; Vol. IV, Basic Resources, 1980, and Input-Output Data Improved Practices (mimeo), 1974. 670-69 Growth & Income Distribution R. Norton Bacha, Edmar M., and Taylor, Lance: "The in Brazil Unequalizing Spiral: A First Growth Model for Belindia," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1975. 671-21 Foodgrain Production fn Asia F. Lowenstein Hendrix, W.E., "Foodgrain Supply-Demand Situation and Prospects in Eleven Asian Nations." (November 1975; mimeo.) April 12, 1976 , --~ -.- --- , ... . ,·, .. ' . ,., _. April 9, 1976 lr. Jon ?teeks, Administrator Division of Code Enforcement Department of Metro olitan Development Indianapolis, Indiana 46204 Dear Jon: I enjoyed meeting you th other night, though as it turned out there was little opportunity to discuss the concept and practice of urban land use control and land planning. As prom! ed, I enclose copies of two research papers having to do with urban land taxation and, more generally, the direction of desired public interventions in the ur an land market. The first is a theoretical and empirical study of land value incre- nts that are due to actions of the public authorities rather than to improv ments by owners or tenants. In addition to the conceptual analysis of land market behavior, the section on betterment recapture as it is practiced in four European and four Asian countries may be of interest. The s cond paper, an outgrowth of a research project on "Urban Land Taxation and Control, .. deals with the broader canvas of taxes on urban land as i t may apply in either the developing or the dev loped world. Since we touched briefly on the research program of the World Bank, I thought you might also be inter sted in a more detailed description. Abstrac~s of Current 1 Studies provides a glimpse at the range of studies the BanK is undertaking. I hope we can keep in touch, Please let me know if you would like more details on any aspect of our work. Sincerely yours, Orville F. Grimes, Jr. Secretary to the Research Committee Development Policy Attachments OFGrimes:gm(ff- WORLD BANK/ INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION OFFICE MEMORANDUM TO: Mr. E. V. K. J 8}°JI:"' Director, Trans. & Urban Proj. DATE : April 8, 1976 FROM: Alastair StomJ.tpnief, Urban Operations Review and Support Unit SUBJECT: The Fiscal Irr;eact of Urban Projects~ Proposal for Study and Design of Draft Guidelines 1. Attached is a proposal for a study of fiscal impact of urban projects, prepared by Messrs. Lethbridge, Linn and Whitehead. The proposal has been cleared in its final form by Messrs . Churchill and Ray and I have approved it f or 50% financing from the Unit's budget. The remaining 50% is to come f rom D. Keare's budget and I understand he has authority from Gulhati to proceed. 2o The study begins at an appropriate scale our investigation into the broader financial implications of projects and will provide some guidance not only to project work but to country economic and city specific work in this area. Happily it also brings closer to operational significance the city fiscal study conducted previously by DPS and as such is a good first example of the way in which Keare and I see ourselves working together on these areas of research. 3. As noted in the proposal the study is scheduled to start in May and be concluded by September. Preliminary discussions with Prof o Wasylenko who has worked for DPS on the city based studies and for the Il1F on local finances in Kenya , indicate that he will be availableo He is also scheduled to participate in a preappraisal mission for the Second Urban Project in Zambia which provides a good con:plement to the proposed desk study. Prof. Roy W. Bahl who is currently heading the IMF study on local finances in Kenya, is also expected to assist in reviewing the work . AStone:dd cc: Messrs. Dunkerley, Churchill, McCulloch, Strombom, Venkateswaran, Beier, Lethbri dge, Whitehead ( TRUPD); Ke are, Linn (DPS) \ r-. (' ( search Co ittee M rs April 7, 1976 Benjamin B. King, VPD Optimali1;y of T x-SubsidX Intervention cid d t th f th Res arch Co. it that thi ts $4,800 in FY76 funds for tax and subsidy int rv ntion ould revi ed for it d olicy work of a under • v n der Tak. this gro p. ould you or by tel phone, wh th • If po aibl, r uch ppr eiate: April 12. nk you. co: Mr. Gr Mr. Ahl~Jalia OFGrimes :gm ';t' INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION I INTERNATIONAL OANK FOR REC ONS TRU CT ION AND DE VELOPMENT I IN TERNATIONAL rlNANCE CORPOlrnTION OFFICE MEMORANDUM TO: Mr. _ o rv·11e F. . G~e·(,Y Jr. DATE: April 6, 1976 FROM: H. G. van der Tak ; I 0 ,j SUBJECT: Prooosal on Optimc1.li ty of 'l'a.x-Subsidy Intervention I have talked to Montek Ahluwalia and Colin Bruce about the above research proposal and its rel at.ion to the case studies on agricultural taxes and sub!'::i.d.ies that are being organized by Colin Bruce and the issues paper on this topic to be prepared by CPS/AGP and DPS/EPR. The general picture appears to be the following: (i) Three of the four case studies to be undertaken this fiscal· year are being carried out as part of baslc or updating economic missions. Any rese arch done for the issues paper will be carried out as part of the regular agricultural economic work, but focussing on a particulc1.r issue, and will be largely carried out by regular Bank staff. The one exception is the case study in Argentin~, now being undertaken by a local consultant, which is expected to have gTeater de. th and should be classifie d as 11 res arch • 11 The same is true of the four A-ddi tional country case studie ten ta ti vely planned :for the first half of Fiscal 1977 , and the follow up -- with con- sultants -- of three of the FY7S studies, ;..ihich are to be intensive tudies employing both Bank staff and suitable consultants. In addition.s two of the countri.e s in the Balassa directed Western Africa Study will be re-..riewed to see what additional work will be required to fit these studies within the framework of the Agricultural Prices and Subsidies Study. (ii) A specific paper setting forth a methodology to be used in these studies is being prepared and is expected to be available by the end of April.. At present, the case studies are guided by Colin Bruce 1 s dTaft outline and by general references to Bela Balassa 1 s work on incent · ires and comparat ive advantages in West Ai'rica (which is primarily add es ·e to industrial problems) and to Squire/van de r Tak on Economic Analysis of Projects. ( iii) .T he issues paper on agricultural prices and subsir:iies is currently scheduled to be ready for staff level PRC Review by December 30, 1976, but its timing is being reconsidered. Individual country studies would e used to the extent that they are completed; all are ex;->ected to be completed by Harch , 1977. On its pres~nt sched le , the iss es paper co1 ld only rnareinally benefit fr orn i n·.tial results of some o f the JT10 Ye intensive case studies . (iv) T'ne proposed study by Profe s sor Bertrand is to·· spell out a p rtial equil · brl1 ri nethodolo gy a la Belc Bala ssa and 5qnire/v.,m Qs!:I' 'fak, etc . but it nll focus, in particul,,:ir, on th P. e;t?.ne:r11J. erpi.ilibi·i .1 a sp. cts of ::ir,,:ricultural t;:ix anrl suhsidy policies and try to prop oc:;e a '3Ui tab-Le rneth0 c1oloey for t::ildne those aqpr>C ts 'nt 0 2c so1 n+, . If s t:irtP.ti irr, .~r1i::1tely . - , and if corr.plete d in draft by, say, J une JO, Prof8 c:;c:;or Bertrand could help • r .Mr. Orville F. Grimes, J r . - 2 - April 6, 1976 define the methodology now being drafted for the early case studies and possibly propose sui table modificat.ions to be introduced in the more intensive case studies that are planned for the first half o f FY 1977 •· His work might also provide useful underpinnin g for the issues paper. (v ) I wouln recoJTUT1end to the Research Committee that it approve the proposed study to be undertaken by Prof ssor Bertrand on condition that he be asked : (a ) to review and contribute to the methodology note now beine prepared by Colin Bruce; · (b ) the study be directe·d jointly by Messrs. Ahluwalia and Bruce, who would be expec ted to consult at appropriate stages w·l th , for example , Messrs . Balassa, Little, Ray and Squire; and ( c) a first draft of the study be completed by June 30. This recommendation assume s, of course , that Professor Bertrand I s qualif'i- ca tions for this study are beyond questj_on . I underst.!3.nd that Messrs. Balassa and Ahluwalia vouch for h'm. · HGv anderT ak : lfb Cleared with and cc : Messrs. Ahluwalia and Bruce cc: Messrs. Chenery , King Duloy Yudelma.n Hr. 1.si.t' E. Christotter en April 6, 1976 August Sc che r Further to your request, I have li db low number ot suggestions tor applied rs arch. On a numb r, I have been keeping tiles and on (livestock, consultants) I haft begun drafting so research notes and outlines. Others are in a r:, preliminary stage. Pleas tick thos id as which Tom and 7our lt think vorth pursuing, and I will prepare some further notes. cp.ANTmTATIVE !m'HODS IN TS In an r of projects, Go sits have organized evaluation te ( a Anderson et al (1976). Consider. bl 1'unds are being o tted and in a few cases spent. { xi.co, igeria, awi., uritius). Howe r, a number of these project cannot at:rord the over head luxury of f'ull time xpertise to assist them in setting up the techniques of survey and survey ana]¥eis to gather the b e line and exp d t r quired to asure proj ct progress. Thus, I would sug st t a Proj t running u rd of US$150,000 be developed to recruit a thre n consultant t for tvo years who would be specialists in statistical techniques. They would do an in-Bank review the types ot proble facing of our borrowers evaluaticm units and then work with the borrowers on hort te missions to a aist th in getting correct suM'ey ethodologies introduced. {l) The Role of Li stock in 1 Developnent Much focus is g:Lv n in the &Ilk to developing t chni.cal packages for small ta In ost cases, tbes packages only include crops, usually grains. The role of livestock and in particular 11-soale traditional productim, is giv tre t. Hove r, livestock in many cases is crucial to both the success ot the package and th weltare o.t the rural people, in providing power, tr sport and ur as well as food, prestige and insurance. '1h e have, h var, be n rous at ts by various goverma nts and donor agencies to int rve m in tr ditional livestock s-ys vi.th the objecti't"9 of incre sing productivity and rural incomes, particularly in French-. peaking st Atric. Pilot projects in goat, sheep, pig, poultry, ·rabbit, be, buffalo, and 11-scale beef and dairy production have been undertaken in ny countries, with a mix d Mstory of success. The or suoce stul project ot this nature have pres bly been thos conduct don a limited geographic basis with .f'ull a reneas or the location specific interactipns between the livestock, cropping and social syst in the tar tare. In view of the importance or livestock in the rural ar as, a r v:L of the current status of ongoing initiatives in this sub-sector is suggest d. SUch revi would provide technical, financial and "social :tea ibilit7" guid lines to eta.tr preparing rur 1 development proj eta. A six to eight man nth study to undertake this revi and To s Hr • L. • Christo!tersen April 6 1 1976 - 2 - propose guidelines d possible changes in Bank project 1 ncJing is therefor propo ed. J Fdgerton nd I could i.u;,ervise such• st'W\Y, 1n conjm1ction with Dem stoop. Don, as :you know, undertook sumary effort along thss lines in 1973 (copy attached). (2) Hou eholder Vi getable Production Both 1n Mauritius and Mexico, the nk proj ts are ctiTely encour. g1ng "ld.tch garden II through lf'-help sch s. In both cases, Till.a re hav taken readily th terial.s ett r d, and pus th to good use. In Maxloo, the provision ot s etc. is aceompani by wom9n . h oonomics vorkere who ssiat village vaaen in getable and tru:lt canning. 1'h res rch proposed would be to reTiew rienc on the organizational side, as ll as to review what species con,position or v getable gardens are being reccanended frOlll both nutriti land technical viewpoints. ain J nd I could assist in the d sign. Manpower requir d vould be about .four onths. (3) Tbe Role ot Consultants in Rural Dev lopment In a consider bl nud>er ot ca s, consultant are being asked to assist overnmant in preparing rural developing strategi sand specific project (Algeria, Ecuador, etc.). 'l'he proposed re arch project would be to re-T.l..ev the successes and failures of consultants in agricultural and rural developient project in various co,mtri.es both fro the cmsultant's, the c7's and the cl.ient's point ot view. The proposed re arch proj ct would take about 8 -months and invol a fair bit of qua ticmnaire work with consulting firms by mail. I bav written a paper on this aubject and oul.d b prepared to draft in detail a re earch proposal bas d on c cnclu ions ot 1Q' paper ti tl~ 'l'he Role ~ Consultants in Agr :Soultural Devel0Ja9nt tr . (4) In 1IBn1' countri s in the world, go rnJEnt re atte-.pting to do S0Jll8th1n about ro on d ter retention. In or countries., nothing is being don In x:ico, tor example, 47j of the ar bl land i ttected by erosion. ha written in aore detail about tl'Je-.possiblliti ot llUlti-country analysis ot the econoa:1.ca ot soil and ter conservation compments ( note dated Octob r 197S), th labor int IU4ty ot soil conservation works in ditterent countries, and COJll)al'ati.Ve maintenanc and organizational syste in elected countrie. or an initia.1 urvey, I vcw.d expect sQIB 10 to 12 an-aonth ot won: wuuld be required. In our Olm rural d" loraent projects, xi.co, Tanzania, Algeria etc. mention bas been de ot tmprobl ot rosion and the n~ r Anexpensive ter - _ "\./ retention wor a part of the ntecbnical packa A - 3 - Currentl.7, the v ey or la . ther or, • In s , electr1.ti ti.on 1 often reeo-·- agricultural intraatructure, t, is r. req recovered. lure are also rarol¥ overed. , r er dit project , the NIIIIIMI... recov ry ot inve nt, in real te ffetfeotiv rel ble rescuirc1u1 • onl7 probably on the order or joJ to ssi~ original resources l (6) I attach nv note an Inwa ing in rurel vel nt projeeta re 1.nexpenaiv _rural avel.op t enic ceat•rs with c u-ea ot about 2,000 f'a111li a (10,000 persa ). In uritius, th Project is porting both v.Ui ket and 'fill CQJIIIUniV C nter • rly vidanoe indicate that the caamunity centers are popular and " a variev ot local tunct~ona (t ly planning, youn r rs club , library, veek.1.T clinic, 'lW room, village et.in , etc. • Sin they haTO be ccmstruoted fair]¥ rapidly, the-y have also serving a an int'ormal distribution center tor producti: - Ji - ult-help • ri.ala prorlded under the Project. .U.O the Villap DlmllopJIDnt 01".ti r er oject is uaing th s new ten as bis into r to po t not!. , 4 li ,r selt-help •terl.als, organi T1sits to urr~d:lng village• eto. To re mine, t concept ot a Servi.ca Center in1ni the t ot a T.Ula center., T.Ulap arket, offlc for rill.age dnelopaent v ker and input tor emall scale pro tive projeot.s has a ap 1. Howe r, ea. applie research ( $100,000) uld be 11 easa.r,r to th ctions, stat.ting d desi of 8llCb. a Serri.ce C ter 1n different ccnmtriee vhioh inter flit could be o:rgmized toa (1) Baise the productivit7 inc ot saall fal'IIIIJrsJ (2) ( uritius, (3) Improve productivlV of those DOW eng-,ed in sub-urginal. DOil• tara oc ti.ens on a p&l't•tilll ar tull-tia baaisJ (4) Provim site and service for non-farm pro ctive act.1.. vit,- ll Tillage industrie which are intensive in the use ot local terials and local l&borJ ($) oura specialization trade be en aicro-regions export to urban o nters. The dnel nt ot such service cant rs require appropriate plv'sical intraatruoturer (1) tion and transport network vhich connects villages rea to th c terJ (2) .l market-place with stalls wh lo produce from the hinterland can be sold and tacilit1.es tor torage or (a) local produce to be exported to other are sJ and (b) sial)le µiputs tor local use (fertilizer, seed, etc.)J (3) Spa am facilities tor growth of village industries near the 11arket place J (4) Appropriate training education, Jll8dical, soc1al d recreatiCllal taeilities. cc: Hr. D. Turnham lJJIIBCh r/cp I 1> UJ~j) ~ i~h ~~(7 /- M • ! ~ f~ J 9~··f},J'y... 4.· /; ~a ~ w-i6v- ~)~" ~UA.v,L~7 .r l l ~~ !:L.,,.t,. ~~ s - 'J' ,?,.. J O Y. tt::, "VI-- Si..-...e · Transport and Road Researct, Laboratory 5~~ . Department of the Environment Crowthorne Berks RG11 6AU Te lex 8.48272 Telephon e Crowthorne 3131 Your reference Mr G Roth IBRD Our reference 90/97/08 1818 H Street NW WASHINGTON DC20433 Date 5 April 1976 U S A Dear Gabriel I discussed the possibili ty of using the Silrabaya project to provide the Bank with raw data with the consultants appointed (Freeman Fox) They have now replied and I am enclosing a copy of their assessment . As you can see they will either 'definitely' or ' probably' provide most of the data required ut would want to be paid for collecting additional information on travel times . Some of this however, w1 ave een co ected e traffic management study and we can obtain it through David Stewart . They then list a category D "unlikely in any circumstances". With the pressure under which they will be working I think we must accept this, but again the data may be available from other sources . For example average trip fares on betjaks will be collected by us when we investigate various forms of public transport operating in Surabaya later in the year . - I doubt whether we or anyone else will be collecting information on walking trips . If you regard this as essential we might be able to persuade Freeman Fox to collect the necessary information but they would , of course, require payment . Could the Bank provide this? \ ., Phil Fouracre and I will be going to Chieng Mai in mid- May and will keep you informed of any developments. As mentioned above , we shall be continuing this research in Sfirabaya later in the year and hope to visit Kuala Lumpur on the way . We shall take this opportunity of having a good look at the mini buses . Yours sincerely APR o9 i976 GD JACOBS Transport ation ard Urtan Projects Overseas Unit Depart men • '" · • 1°cnc a ENC Off b /f;IC- c;H cj 'J _______ _ -ed Answer ----Jj_~l]_ , : ~----- Da e : -----------f1 I T :,n , ,u Y ,uo I i. "1U y i: 0 Oll03S SNO !J ' "l lNOWHOO l I :II ~V 6- ~dV 9161 03J\f303cl Ch 1-.:x, ve JO Tre$itlStrai1f)n Numl~"r · 816972 Enl(lJ.nd H.,·Ruuen•d Office 28<30 Cro~vt>nor f~anle ns, London .SWl W ODY . SUMMARY T A BL E for the present:i.tion of Comprehensive Tr·rnsportntio"1 StudiP.s to th~ IffiD ~-~€A~~:1 f\ .. . !11.se Jnt0.rmedi::ite r;oun 1.ry . ~:Y.E.~.,~ .. . 'i r?:-i.r • ••••• Yef\r . ..•.... Yenr . ...•.• 1. SLnp11 J:11. ion ? .o Popn l ., Li on n ' !lousnhnlct3 ? ,t' T:thor · Force ?.3 1-:mploymP.nL '.' .1, /\•·P.rllP,O Ill! TncomC! •' ' ..I~ flv,JrA.RO IIH D1.spos:ible Income f\Vf'rFtP,n 1111 K,cpFmrli ture on Trlivel l_:_ 3 •() 1\11 LO!l 3. 1 MoLor~ycl es l .'.' Conim(>rc•h1 IJPh.,,.;l os -.Light 1. ). r.or,1mPrcl.nl Vf"h\cles - llel\vy 1.1, l\1:1n~ 3• I; T.·tx. i 3 i .(, 01.hPr T)-·,o Ro:1d Sy3 LP.m 1, .o .n r~cnls: Rond Lcneth ,, • (). 1 A•re. No. of Lane.s 1, .n .'.' Daily VKT 1,.0.1 D'lily VHT ,, .o .J, Daily Avg. Sp~cd A. Ii. 1 .0 Arter ;_A.ls: Ro;i.d Ler:igth !) Ii. l .1 Avr,. No. of IAnes ~ Ii. 1 .? D--,il~r VKT ~ec--k to S)c. J1 tlv.J ; I1 • 1 • ) ll.i ly VHT ~1 ~ 11 • 1 .1 1 _ _ _ _ _ _ _D:' ily A.vg. Speed (\ 1,.:>.Cl F:xpre~swA.ys: Ro:,d Length !> 1,.?.l l\ve, No. of L~nes !3> ,,.:'.? ~ 3, 1,.?.3 D11J.ly VKT 1h ny V1iT rt>~.k'" ~ J,.? .,, Ihi ly iwg. Speed t A. 1, .) .o l, .I, .o ,•. ,; .o No. of Sir;r·1lizPd Intcr3t:ct,ions No. of PArk inh Sp:-tces No. of On-s t.reet ParkinP, Sp,'lc.es S<'P. explllnA t i.ons on the al.her side of the Form Cont'd. ·, • C 1 t,.\' •• •• •. · • • •• • ••• fhse Jntermedillte Design Co,1 n Lry ••••••••••••••• Ye:i.r •• •••• Year ••...••• Year •••• 'l'h n !~11d i c Tr:rn:,port Sys Lem I;•() I \1 ;; o :; A. •:.o.n ~r V,dii r.l~IJ A. I; • (). ., I l .i rt• · lrn1'.Lh t>-. (\ f} , i I y VK T A I: •{) • \ :;1 \•\l. 1;..1p:1<'.i.l.y A. I;.() . )I l"'.h i l y fl V/'.. CofllJn. Speed A.. I;•()• ': /1.vC'r/\f '. P 1'r i p F~re !: • 1 M1ni- ln1ses ( be,v\.\.o'S,.) A. I: • 1 .() · ll n . nf Vrhi clP.s A. I:•, • 1 1. i.n<' L0ng t.h •:., ..' l.. I; D, i ly VK1' A •1 .1 ;_;f':i t. r, .1.p1.c \. Ly C 1 • )I Thily . 1 .vr,. r~omrn. Spc~d A. • 1 • ,: /\v~ra1:~ '!'rip Fnre I ..' •: .;>,() ') .' ;r, hon l I~ I ~W :1 No. o I' VPh i cles f\) <.,k ~w UJ)[ I L. I:•/• 1 Drt \ l y VKT ,· 'l ,. ,., .I'. '. >P .' \ L t::1p.' tr. j Ly ,:. ) Coll,,,: Liv ,~ T.1.x1s (_-::,ee... i'::.~""'-t::."S) 1: •. 1.0 Nn . ,)f V0.hicles I; • ) •] Dd ly VKT I;• \ • /, 1h i_ ly a Vf,. Comm. SpE!ed ,;. L J /\veraee Trtp Fare ':." ,:.)i.O lbpid Mn:os Trnnsport System No . of Vch i cles • JI • 1 Llne Lenr,th I; .)f •? O:t i.ly VKT I;.,,. I ~;f'n t. C.'lpi\c I ty I;. Ji •) I Jhi)y nvg. Comm. Speed I:.} I • I: AV erri f;P. Tri r Fore ,· ,. ' .' I\1; •I : .o tfo . o i' Vehicles 1 ~ ''. I; •, Ih i ly VKT l> I:• 1; •? /\verA~e Trip FAre 6. TrRvP.l Charqcteristics •• h. () r!urnher of I n tern:\l Tripmllkers ~ (1.!l.() /\u Lo Driver I\ 6.n.1 /\11 Lo P11ssenger A 6.o.? Mo tor L:ycle Driver A. (i.0.1 Mo Lorcycl e Pri.s,,.::nger A. A .n .J, P11bl le Tr!4nsport, P,1~s~ncer C6.o.,; Mlx,\d Modes, f'ri vRtc f:.t Publlc Cont'd. .I ,.._ I I. . ' · City ............... . . ... . .. . . . . .. . B..1.se Intermediate Design Count.ry Year ••.•• Year •......• Year •••• (, :1 !Jnml •<'r o f Internal PerRon Trip!. 6. 1 .o \~.'\ 1 k i rl/; (,. I • 1 A11 Lo l)r Ivor (, • 1 • ;' A. 11 L,l f',1:-; :-; "n1 ;er (,.1.J Mo to r r. yc l c Dr i v P.r ( 1 • 1 •) I Mol.orcycl <' l '·1:, ::;cr1t~er (,.1.•: nus l' ,s :;en f;P.r A. (,_ ., .fi Mini -011s PAs~Anger C~ei,.....v') . - (,., • ·1 ~cho0l 111s P:1ssengcr t-)9\" ~('Lc.ec.A"'- · (,.1.11 Cnmmerch1 Vehlcle P:i.ssen~or o.? Nnrnber of Tnternnl Vehicle Trips A 6.?.o A. u to A. 6.?.1 Motorcycle I\ 6.2 .;' Cornmcrcinl - Light A. ,; . ?. • .1 C0nunP-rci~] - HeRvy A. () .? .,, ' lx i 'l', ~6.?.•; Othor (,.) l'<>r :"'.on Trips by P11rrose - Priv:ite f\ (,. 1. () lf o m(' A "· ,. 1 Wo r k C (>.J,;> [\11 S j llC :rn C 6.1.1 r('r3onal C. 6.).)1 :..;r,hool C.. G.3., ; Jhoppi.ng C ~ .1.(, Socinl-Ilecrent:lon i\ ,.,.'/ Other A. (,. 1. fL Total 6.11 ------------------------------------------ rer c on Trips by Purpose - Pnblic A. 6.l1.0 Horne A 1·, .J,. 1 Work C 6.li.? nusiness c... (,.11.1 Pcrsonnl c.. (,.!r.)1 Sc lioo1 c_ (,.11. 1 '. Shopp1nr, ~ (,.I,.() Soct'l1-n c creat:lon (,.1i.1 Otlwr A. () .11 . 8 Tot,, l (1 • I: ~h i1 y 1'r .w e1 Ti me p e r Tripmaker p 6. I :,o WRlki.ne C. 6. I;• 1 J\11 to Dri vrn· C 6. ,; .? Au to f'ns se nr,er C: 6. r: . 1 i1otor~yclc Dri.. ver c.. 6. r:.) I Motorcycle f."lssenge-:- C (>.' ; .,; Pt!b] ic Trrt nsport fasscnger (__ 6.•:J, MixPd M a rl.e s , Priv:ite f-.. Public (__6.•:.'7 Commerci~l Vehicle Driver · Cont'd. Cl Ly 13:lSC Inter·mediate Design Co11 r. t.ry Year ..... Year . ...... . Year ••..•• (,.(, /\vt>r ·11 •,.. lnl.,·rn:11 'i'rlp f1 ., •• n W·1 Jl,ln1:: J)l~trin~n (,. ( •• 1 ( , . {'. . '• .J ~· 1\111.11 Drlvrr: Dlst.'\nc~ /\ 111 n !)rivf'r: TimP. M i c; lrr\v .. r: Dl~t.rrnc,, {' • (' •I I M/r: Driver: Ttme (, .(,. ,: P/T f-'.' ls~0nf,('r: Di 3t1U1ce (,J,.6 P/T l''l~:,cnw'!r: TtmA (1 .(,. 1 c/v Orivrr D1stAnce (, .I,. R C/V Driv~r Tlme (,. '/ 1,:x l.rrn,l Trri vf'l Cro!1s.in~ LhP, Cordon ' (,.'{.() 1\11tn Vf•hic1c Trips (, .. f111 Lo l'erson Trtp:1 (,. ' ". M/C V<'li.icle Trips (, • ., • 3 M/C Pf'rson Trips (,. ·1.1, r/T Person Trips (,. 7. ,: C/V Vehic]e Tri.ps . .... - .. •• 1 ' .- DE T Al L E D TABLES fnr Llio pro::;cntl-lL i.rn1 of C:omrrehensi ve 'l'r:rnsport:lLlon St.udiPs Lo tl1t~ rrnrn ,.. I "ZN .... ~,011n vt-y • ••• !~ ''N{z/::,l.o..._ • • •. ,,-:. • • 1• 1 • () A 1 .o.o , nd thf' SLudy Aren Tl1P H01:lon . A. 1 • ('\ • 1 l'lty::;ir:,11 br)r1·iPrs n11d srecl.nl gengrnph:ici::tl feritures A. 1 .n. 2 llt·hn.n i 7,cd ArcA , ·". 1 'l'r·, l't i r. Zones 1 • 0. l1 l\~irr1°r-::1 t. l on of Zon0.s into Districts and ·Sectors "' A. J •()•I; Sr.rPPn Lines 1 •1 T·1hl0:, Sn rrur,,1r i ?, ing ~ 1 • 1 • () , :r,)1111,I Ar,~;, vf Zone:~ ~ 1.1.1 I;,., lll nd ' \ of !1i sLrkts Are . 1 • 1 •? : ;r011nil Arf' ; i of lfrb·,ni '/,C'd Aren ~ 1 ., .' A 1 • :· • () f'l ·n p <>r t. i ons 1>f de v1~ lopPu and 11ndevelt1 ped lnnd !) 1 . ? . I L·1nd IJr;n C:1tP.eorles - ground nre , ' \ ::i.nd floor space I:> l • :' • ;-> 1.nd lTsP. C:-t tegori es l•.mpl oynir.nt by L. _I) 1 . :' . 1 1.nd heavy ~;pPCi7ll focili. tie15, such as port, :ilrport . .. •) 1cteristics of Population Soc io-1'r.onomj c Ch1.r ~ A ? .o Populal.i.on: NumbPr, di.,,tr:ibution :.Rd 01:laPfletexist.ic~ A ;, • 1 llrn1"el1 olds: Number, di.strib'..1 tion a.rta el'-laPl'leteP=iaties A ?.? 1.,bor Fore~ j) ~ •.J l!ou:-P.lio ld IncoJ11e, Dispos:1.ble Income and F.:,;:penditu.re on TrR.vel, ,1y 1node ~ ? .11 s• ndcnf. :ind S_ c.hoo1 Fnrollmcnt ? •I: Molnr Vehiclr Q~1crship: Household distribution by vehicle ~ ::iv:1i.1:ibU1~y ~6- ineo~ ·I 1. '1 nn:-;rort11.~lon System Supply Ch,'lrRcieristics ) .o q strncture nh icles, by 'I'ype '\. I\ ).?.1 1~ M0Loriz:1t .i on, Householr\ and Popnl::i.tion, by Type Lov-~ ..ie\..·..:..~) ) •3 1.l Transport System ConunP.rci , A. J.1.01~ ) •) •1 Vf'li:i r.le:-, by Type Tr.1 nsport:1U on Termtn::ils I\ Jt • Tr1vt-l llemnnri Char,teteristics J, .n Iinu:.Pl1old Trllvel ( J,.o.o Tri pm.'lk,~r:. per llou!1ehold vs. Size, Income and Vehicle /\vni1:1l.dliLy c.. ) I • {). l Trip RriLes nf llou~eholds and Tripm~kers, by Mode, vs. Size, (__. ,.. (). :' lnr.nl'lf! nnd Vehicl.1 ! /\vrdl:1bility Tr:1v<>1 DlsLrincP, Tr:\v<~l Tlme A.nd Travel Cost Buciget.s vs. ~izr, lncome and Vehicle AvnilRbilLt.y JI • 1 Per·;on 'l'r:ivel /i. .o ,ci,.,., (_ 1 Number of Trips; by ModP. and Purpose Trip R~te, Trip Time and Trip Distance p~r Tripmaker by Mndf' .1 nd Purpose ve. 1Ae eme and 'Jehicle Availabiltty A !1. 1 • ? M ochl Split. Relationships .C-), .1 • 3 i; Trip T j me !lnt.i Tr:i p Distance Fre11.u•mcy Distributions, by Moda. . ., :nHi F\1rpose J, •;, I~ivat c Vehicle Travel A 1, .? .n Number or Trips clnd Trij., Ra"'ves, l>y Type s ~ J,.?. 1 )I •;> • ~· Aver ,11:P Trip Time :mrl Trip Di stc1.nce, by 'l"JPe D:1i ·1y Travel Di stance and Tr::ivel 'l'imc per Vehicle, hy 'l'ype I\ ,,.:>., Vcl1iclr. Occ11pa11r.y Rates, by Type and furpose A. / 1 • ;, • ) I If- Trip Ti 1ne :rnd 'I'ri p Dist::i.nce Frec,uency Distributions, by Mode and furpose Cont'd. -, . a a ) '\ J•'n no .,,· , ,- .. A JI •;• • ' : :: GpPr:1 Li ni; r.os ts, by Typ~ :u1d Speed )1• 1 A . 11. LO tJ111nbnr ()r Trlrs, by Type A " • l • , . T1 · ir Jht.0 :, , h_v '['yrt: !I • l • : I 'I !lf'Pr'l Lin,: Cos ts, by Type 11nd Speed )I• )i J-'.x LPrt1{ll Tn.vel A. ) I • / 1 • () lhl1y :rnrl llour1y Nnrnber of Person ::i.nd VPh1cle Trips, -ey 1-HJ crA".:l RAci. ~xi ori:i.J RaBi:'ion~ crossi n~ Lhe Cnrti0n Line, l,,y Mo di, ,nri l\irpose ) I • I: Trip 1;<>n0r"'1Lion, ,\1,tr:{cti.on and DlsLri.ht.:tion II • : • (, l( Trip 1: 0n~rn.L1on :rnd Attrrtction equ.1.tions, by Mode ~nd l'urp osP , Tntern;i.] ·ms ~tOPRAl A I1 • ';. 1 Ori1:in :ind De"Lin:-\ti.on t,.l'..atrices, Person and VehicJe, by ModP. :tnrl l'urpost=- hJ, A.. 1, .r,.o D·1 i l y P0r:1nn n11d Veld cl c Assi t:;nP.d K.i. l ometragP. , ifo11rs of Tr:1 v<·l :md Sp"~d by Hoaci CJ :.1 ss, MorlP. .'.'l. nd D:i.s tric t, • Mr. John Blaxall, P & B April 5, 1976 Benjamin B. King, VPD Research Budget 10 Carryover Provision This is to confirm our mutual understanding that up to 10 of the FY76 research budget {i.e., up to $214,300) may be brought forward to FY77. Please l t us know how this is to be handled, so that we may inform project supervisors. cc: Mr. J. Adler Mrs. Feldstein OFGrimes :gm (JI,- 1r. C. Weiss, PAS April 5, 1976 Benjamin B. King, VPD . . . . I. & l(ta; Proposal for a Study of the Food Delivery System (University of Pittsbur9h} 1. A copy of this arrived on my desk with a routing slip dated April 1 and no other information. What am I supposed to deduce? 2. Are you advocating this proposal? If so, there are several serious questions about it: (i} It is an external proposal which shows no signs of having been discussed with the Bank and, a fortiori, been a apted to our needs. (ii) It is to be conducted by a who1ly us team (mainly systems engineers). (iii) The prototype is envisaged in a US context. This does not seem the shortest (or chca es$ route to applicability in the LDC's. (iv) It costs $370,000, of which one-third is "indirect". This is without computer time which at Pittsburgh seems to be a free good. 3. I have another question about research projects which bear on agricultural investment, production and delivery to the consumer. When are the considerable sums devoted by CGIAR to biological research going to be at least fractionally allocated to closely allied problems? 4. I suggest that it would be as well, before proceeding further, to obtain copies of t.~e Philippine and South India studies mentioned by the proposers (bottom of page A-15) to see what they are like; if they are at all encouraging, then you might consu~t those in the Bank who. could give advice on the suitability and adaptability of this proposal: (i) Agriculture Department. (ii) DRC (cf. RP 671-29). Mr. C. Weiss - 2 - Aprils~ 1976 (iii) Economic Analy is and Projections Department (Jean Waelbroeek). (iv) Employment & Rural Development Division, DED. cc: Messrs. Bruce Duloy Grimes teiserson Waelhroeck BBKing:gm r~{c (' Mr. R. Gulhati, ECDDR April 5, 1976 Benjamin B. King I VPD Si eel B'. 'B. King Research on Self-Management Having read Timothy King's memo of April 1, I conclude that we could use more self-management of self-management research. It is now time to put up or shut up. cc: Messrs. Chenery, Karaosmanoglu, Avramovic, Dulcy, Grimes, T. King, Little BBKing:gm Those listed below April 2, 1976 Orville F. Grimes, Jr., VPD Schedule of Forthcomin2 Research Committee eetinJ!! The next two meetings of the Research Conunittee will take place on Tuesday, May 11 and Thursday, June 17. Consequently, proposals in final form should reach me no later than Thursday, Atril 15 for th May meeting and Thursday, May 20 forte June meeting. Dates for subse- quent meetings remain at present the same as outlined earlier -- late July/early August and late August/early September. I will let you know of any changes in this schedule. Distribution Messrs. Chenery, 'araosmanoglu, B. B. King Avramovic, Balassa, Lerdau, Thalwitz, Vergin, Waelbroeck DPS, CPS Directors and Division Chiefs Regional Chief Economists Miss Gary Mr. Lowther Mrs. Hazzah OF Grimes : gm I. r G p Division Chiefs , DPS, Mr . Ha q , Directors , CPS, Regional Chie f Economists April 1, 1976 Orville F . Grimes, Jr., VPD New Research Proposals in FY77 1. To gain a fuller appreciation of anticipated demands on the research budget during FY77, I would be grateful if you could list on the attached sheet the new research projects you expect to submit to the Research Committee over the next few months. Coverage should range from proposals well along toward completion, a draft of which is expected soon, to ideas taking prelimi- nary shape whose budget estimates must necessarily be highly notional. Intentions matter more at this point than their precision in becoming reality. 2. Please giv an estimate of the month in whi ch proposals are likely to be (a) available in semi-final form for an early and informal discussion with a review panel, and (b) ready with all necessary signatures for review prior to consideration by the Research Committee . Early reviews have been helpful in sharpening the focus and relevance of some recent proposals , suggesting that wider use could be made of these informal sessions. 3. I would app reciate receiving the completed sheet by Friday, April 23. Thank you. Attachment cc: Directors , DPS Admin. Assi s tants, CPS Mr. Lowth er Miss Gary OFGrimes:gmf J / Proposals Expected to be Submitted to Research Corruui ttee for Funding, FY77 Department: · oivision: Anticipated Request for Likely Sub~ission Dates Tentative External Research Funds of Proposal ? Project Title FY77 FY78 Tota1l/ Sem·i-Final Fina1.::./ 1/ Including FY79 if applicable 2/ Best estimate of month, May to Octobe r 1976 l Q . # ,. I 'f Mr. J. Dulcy, DRCDR March 31, 1976 Benjamin B. King, VPD "A Model for Estimating the Effects of Credit Pricing on Farm Level Ernploym_e_n.,,.t-a-n'""'d.......,I=-n-c-o_m_e__,,,D.... l-s...,t-r....,i .... ,f..-- b-u-t.,..1,.,o-n... 1. I have no doubt that this should become a Working Paper, but I think its value would be gre tly enhanced, if, as I said, it ansiered the question: what is going on? I see the inputs (dimly) and I see the outputs (though the glare is overpowering), but en route? 2. To try my hand at answering this question, I made four similar diagrams, all based on Table 10 (page 27). The first of these is on land-use. The top diamond shows the changes which occur with rofit maximand, as one goes along two alternative routes from low-wage, high-interest to high-wage, low-interest (the coordinates are in paren- theses). The dotted vertical lines show what happens when you go, at the two extremes, from a profit to a profit-cum- wage (shareholders) maximand. The bottom diamond corres?onds to the top one. 3. In any given diamond, one observes two patterns of change, which I will call opposite or parallel. The first occurs along two legs, starting or finishing at the same point. A typical case is either the cotton/soya shift or the sugar beet/soya shift at the top of the land-use diagram. This sort of change implies that relative factor-prices are import~nt. The second pattern occurs when a change is seen on parallel sides of the diamond; a case in point is the sugar beet/soya shift in the lower land-use diamond. This implies that absolute prices (labor here) are important. There are also some mixed _cases. The table at the end of this note (before the diagrams ) gives a list. Some are common to both maximands; some are not (for example, shareholders' employment). 4. In some cases, the reasons are fairly obvious. For example, the characteristic behavior of profits and shareholders' wages in diagra~ 3 depends on whether you are increas'ing wages or reducing interest rates. It seems fairly independent of the cropping pattern. But .that, as they say in Kansas City, i about as far as I can go apart from idle speculation. I suspect that one should first explain what is going on within a diamond (or set of them with the same maximand). Then there might, with luck, be a link to the reasons for differences between maximahds. s. Any non-glare illumination? cc : Mr. Norton Attachments BBKing:gm Characteristics of the diaqrams 0J?l2(?S i te Mixed Parallel Profit Maximization Land use C/S, Sb/S Sb/A Employment N s Income N P,S Tractor Ut. TllO T65 P/W Maximization Land use C/S Sb/A Sb/S Employment s N Income N P,S Tractor Ut. TllO T65 I ' I : I I :! ' •i .i .i cfs o f Sb/.S 171. : I 1 1 I Sb/A O . : , ' :! . ·1 cfsJ..3c- ~'r>/s o Sb /1~ '11 (• 1 ·J''•:> 11 c/;, s;~ SI ·~~ /s Sb/M Sl:i /r1 I '/ : . t• ... , , ., /1 L (' Cf. LO trn I !O ,J :, '1 r.... I) I [~)) S~(' 1-..:.l- ~o :.,i,'('- :: b /1; • . e J, "''-~ ) , , (t:. ~ .. r kl'· ,.;. . O 11 • I ,I , I i' ' I' '. ''' - / . C, -7. 3 --~. ~ • i .. f - s.o I ·-12-± - 15.4- I I ;, 'V t ~ i ~-3 s :l-l.'7 -·"!..7 N -i'.,.4· ,- . 4.4 -- /..j T ------- ,e.o 1 s v. I l :..Q:..!.. v ,C . .,,.,.. T ··21 ..-1 1 (, . ,, ......,\~ ),)'>' .) ,,- ,. .... , ----- .----- . .• _; ~ i c--- -c- i,~1: ;,1'S -l' i\J I\-.!'"' . d, ~-.. .;_ LJ lL(,- · } 1 ..~ ro~\ 1 . • -3,7 ~G k-. . i--j . Ii : I '. I' - l-- to.... - Vil-'-' .f '; .' I . p . l'.2 • '3, '! P· -·r. re S ·-c ,.., 5 ~.2 .£ '- - !.'ii - tJ T -- -1. ':b -~s.7 l C,. 2.. I G.i s) ,:1. ., c~sQ ; 4-) : . .1 · 'I I I .- ,.r:: 2.q · I. o I ..... 3 -u ~ .- i. ii- p - 3 .S ~ :)...r:; s 5 .4 -- IJ T T ..:..<.:,~ i -0 F' ,i.3 ,J. O 5 tJ ... ..... ·-T "..J. ,,.,. ..,.... r ') 1 1.1 - ~ - I... ·- c1, I (: . I ~ :12:.. ·-a.ct ·.... .T lo . ·3 "T -3.f I~- .. :. ~'·-- ,") ' 'I • ( ' I 1 I T' IS ") , I r I (~ ' ~ I, ~ ; \ 0 l '' • c.. l:. ( ' . .}/ ",~r\ _,,.,,__.,.· L1 'l · I .) '.!. ~~ ..-., ...,_ ,· I ( • { .\ ' .., , I . t , •-y i h, . .,,_ . , t £ lI I i: I . ~u~j}~~~~ ' I iI I' I: I ' (~o >I ),) • ·I (110 - II I: i! I ~r Gs- - 4: •i I, .' ;I \; , I. . /I I ~ · • _/ ~T f ·iO · - 1 ~ / / 'T b5 il.j. I (1 ~ }>) t I ) 1110 ·- ~ 1' 6-;- - I I I 11(0 "T (,5 (, It 1() I/ t· ... .f I ' • /I ·) k~ t{<; { i,"" J ls kr hr-,Lt "<.\ 1 ·~ ;) ( l (. ( .... Messrs. J Holsen & J. Shilling -iarch 29, 1976 Benjamin B. King, VPD Prospects: Country Groups 1. There can bet o reasons for projecting forward to 1985: {a) To see what it takes to get there. {b} To see ihere we stand when it arrives. I think the choice of country groups for the post-adjustment period should be decided, not on the basis of compatibility at the beginning, but on the basis of compatibility at the end. 2. IDA resources are scarce and Bank resources will become so. Who will be eligible for Bank money? Who will be on the edge {blend, third window, etc.)? :iho will be IDA only? Among the latter, should there be a division into IDA-for-suitable-projects and a new sort of budget- support category for countries in chronic need? It's no use looking at the beginning of the period for this. 3. In the context of prospects for DC's, this may sound egocentric (the ego being the Bank}. But, I think it helps to focus on the problems of development if one first addresses one's own concerns vis-a-vis these problems on a grander scale. 4. I have consequently gone to the very end of the limb in drawing up a 1985 list of categories (see Table I). It is very off-the-cuff and is there to be shot at. It is not all that different from the Shilling 11 t of January 15. (Perhaps we are all brainwashed by the ame soap). But there are some ~ifferences, especially in making explicit the reason for grouping. 5. I should perhaps add a few terminological explana- tions. Graduates and Graduating are those countries hich would no longer be getting Bank loans or ould/b expected to stop within the next 5 to 10 y ars after 1985~. Through the looking glass countries are those that have to run fast to stay put . 6. Could we discuss? !7 A list of countries already in these categories is in Table II. It might be interesting to have datea of last loans attached to these, if it can be done easily. Attachments cc: tessrs . Karaosmanoglu, Tims, Waelbroeck BBKing:gm I. 1985 Categories A. Graduates Portugal, Romania, Yugoslavia Brazil, Jamaica, Mexico Algeria Graduating fairly soon Turkey Korea, Malaysia Stagnant South America Argentina, Chile, Uruguay o. Large, Poor OPEC Indonesia, Nigeria Typical Bank (besides C, D & some of F) Central America (most) Colombia, Ecuador, Paragu y, Peru Morocco, Tunisia Ivory Coast, Liberia, Zambia Philippinos, Thailand F. OPEC-support cases (?) Egypt, Jordan, Syria G. Some concessionary aid Bolivia Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Liberia, Senegal, Zaire H. Concessionary only with soine growth Burma, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Viet-nam C.A.R., Ethiopia, Malawi, Tanzania I. "Through the .Looking-glass" cases Banglad~sh Afghanistan, Nepal Laos, Cambodia Sahelian countries, Sudan II. Current Gra,duates and Graduating A. Western Europe Denmark, France, Luxemburg, Netherlands B. Northern, Central Europe, Oc ania, etc. Finland, Iceland, Norway Austria, Italy Australia, Japan, South Africa C. OPEC Iran, Iraq, Libya, Venezuela C. M diterranean, Far East Greece, Israel, Spain Hong Kong, Singapore Mr. Ravi Gulhati, Director, ECO March 29, 1976 Benjamin B. King, VPD £~ty Study At the Re earch Committee meeting of March 25 Mr. Chenery said th t intere ted Bank staff, having di cussed the most recent v rsion of this propo al on iarch 23 with Hessrs . Keare, Renaud and Rothenberg, ~ere suffici ntly encouraged to ask for a redrafted proposal that sets down more clearly what i to be undertak n and, more particularly, what methods ill be used. The work envisaged does seem to fit logically into the framework for Bank urban research, a r vised draft of which is now being repar d . r. Chenery's feelings on th concept of uch a stud-, he reported, had evolved froc essentially n gative to neutral or slightly positive. cc: Messrs. Little Keare Renaud (· ( \{ft· , . r Mr. Ravi Gulhati, Director, ECD Mr. K. Kanagaratnam, Dir ctor, PNP March 29, 1976 Banjamin B. King, VPD Research Proposal: Int rnational Review Group on Research in Population and Development 1. At its meeting of March 25 the Res arch Comrnitte agreed with the findings of the revie anel that although issues in population r s arch are of interest to the Bank, this proposal, when judged according to the tandards normally applied to Bank research propo als, e unabl adequately to address th se is us. R eognizing, however, that a revi w of the proposal on its merits may not be a d termining factor in thi case, the Committee d cided to report its conclu ions to r. McNamara, who as you know had earli r indicated gre ent that the work hould be und rtaken and, if so, that it hould be £inane d from th Research budget. Mr. Ch n ry will end a memorandum to Mr. McNamara outlining the Co itt et findings and suggesting what possible further action might be taken if it is decided on other than technical grounds that the Bank should mak a contribution. cc: e rs. Little T. King Zachariah Baldwin A. Ray OFGrimes: gm ($' Research Committee Members March 26, 1976 Orville F. Grimes, Jr., VPD Minutes of Meeting of ·larch 2 5 , 19 7 6 1. Present at the meeting were 1essrs. Chenery (Chairman), vramovic, Dubey, Jaycox, B. B. King, L rdau, Thalwitz, van der Tak, aelbro ck and Grimes. International R view Groue on Social Science Research in Population ~nd D velopm nt 2. The Conunittee unanimously agreed with the review panel that although i sues in population research are of interest to the Bank, this proposal, when judged according to the standards routinely applied to Bank research proposals, seems incapable adeauately of addressing these issues. It felt that support of a research rogram rhose metho ology, objectives and usefulness to ultimate user were, according to a technical review by Bank staff, found wanting could set an unfortunate precedent. Recognizing, however, that such a technical review may not be a ruling factor in this case, members decided to report these conclusions to Mr. !cNamara, who had earlier indicated agreement that the work should be undertaken and, if so, that it should be financed from the Research budget. Mr. Chenery will send a memorandum to Mr. cNar.1ara outlining the committee's findings and suggesting what possible further action might be taken if it is decided on other than technical grounds that the Bank should make a contribution. Evaluation of Asian Data on Income Distribution (Project No. 671-08) 3. The Committee noted that Phase 2 of this project, and eventually Pha e 3, should help identify major charac- teristics of poverty groups in a broad cros -country frame- work and, tog ther with companion research on income distri- bution in Latin America, lead to policy-oriented results. It accordingly approved the work program planned for Phase 2, authorizing an additional $94,400 ($74,400 in FY77 and $20,000 in FY78). Phase 3 will be the subject of a separate submission to the Committee at a later date. Optimality of Tax-Subsidy Intervention 4. This proposal was received too late for review. Questions arose of principle -- th proposal would cost so little that funding by the sponsoring department might be - 2 - more a propriate -- and of execution, particularly whether the DRC had adequate staff to manage additional research in this area. Given, in addition, the links between this proposal and that on agricultural prices and subsidies forthcoming from CPS in support of a Policy Paper on the same subject, the Committee recommended that an ad hoc group under Mr. van der Tak examine how the proposal's objectives and methodology relate to those of the CPS effort in research and policy. his group will report its findings to the Co ittee. Urban Research 5. Under other business, Mr. Chenery reported on the progress of the Stoutjesdijk paper outlining a fra ework for Bank urban research, and of the "City Study" (see "Strategic Planning to Accommodate Rapid Growth in LDC Cities," included with materials for the February 13 meeting of the Committee}. Although the objectives and, more particularly, the methodo- logy of the "City Study" need to be set down more clearly, the work envis ged does seem to fit logically into the framework for urban resea~ch, a revised draft of which will shortly be available. A group of inter sted Bank staff, discus ing the most recent version of the proposal on March 23 with tessrs. Keare and Renaud and the major con- sultant (Professor Rothenberg}, was sufficiently encouraged to ask for a redrafted proposal pelling out more clearly what is to b undert ken and what methods will be used. Mr. Chenery's feelings on the concept of such a tudy, he reported, had evolved from essentially ne ative to neutral or slightly positive. The redrafted proposal could be considered at the next me ting of the Committee so that, if approved, a research team could be assembled before its members are obliged to accept other commitments. Distribution Messrs. Chenery, Avramovic, Balassa, B. de Vries, Dubey, Jaycox, B. B. King, Lerdau, Thalwitz, van der Tak, Vergin, Waelbroeck, Yudelman Ms. leaving nrs. Hazzah OFGrimes : gm tyf},- Mr. Yacov Zahavi, TRU March 25, 1976 Orville F. Grimes, Jr., VPD Draft Working Paper 1. As we discussed, additional oints of style need to be clarified before this paper can be considered for inclusion in the Staff Working Paper series. These points are concerned with (a) presentation of data; (b) int rpre- tation of data; (c) t xtual clarifications; (d) minor stylistic improvements; and (e} typogra hical errors. Presentation of Data 2. To avoid confusion and misinterpretations, the tables should be more self-contained. Many of the h~adings are incomplete. A reader cannot be expected to know for certain that "L, km." in Table 2.1 means "length of arteriala, km.~ unless it is spelled out for him. In Figure 1.9 the list of 11 cities to which the figure refers has been omitted. Another illustration is your use of the term "split" or "modal split. i, In Table 3 .1 a bit of cogi- tation yields the result that "public split" is the propor- tion of total transport accounted for by public modes, i.e., column 6 divided by column 8. An explicit reference, such as "6/8 11 with the columns numbered, would aid greatly in interpreting the table, all the more so as "rail split" turns out not to be columns 5 over 8 as one might expect, but 5 over 6. Table 3.1 is described on page 36 as pre- senting information on "car, including purchase, maintenance and operation ... No such heading appears in the table. Does the heading "private" mean cars only; cars and motorcycles, or something else? 3. A slightly different problem besets Figure 3.3, page 39. Both horizontal scales appear to take on different unit lengths at various points. Observation suggests that if the scales were of uniform length, the linear relation- ship depicted in the graph would by no means be as clearly defined. On page 56, hat are the six cities? Mentioning the cities with their populations would be helpful. It is likewise extremely difficult to make sense of Table 3.11; in what units are measured "mobility" and "perceived value of mobility?" Interpretation of Data 4. The above difficulties ar often compounded in the textual descriptions of what the data show. 1ost of these difficulties, as with igure 1.1 where an explanation Mr. Y. Zahavi - 2 - March 25, 1976 is needed that the curves re additive vertically rather than each representing the indicated total, are easily dealt with. In Figure 1.12-2, why not say that "the motorcycle motorization is shown as a percentage of car otorization and plotted again t the latter?" On page 20, can the shape of the curve also be explained by a lower rate of increase of demand for commercial vehicle with income and city size (resulting from narrower fluctuations in requirements for commercial activity) compar d with the demand for private cars? In a similar vein, what Figure 2.2 (page 27) may show is the greater congestion at high motor- ization rates. Arterial density may fall both becaus there are more cars and because fewer kilometers of roa are being built than the high motorization rates require. 5. The notion that a single transport mode, such as rail trav 1, has a modal split is, at best, confusing. By "rail modal-split" is meant the proportion of total expendi- tures devoted to rail travel (column 5 divid d by column 6, Table 3.2, page 38) - why not call it that? Also in Table 3.2, the reader assumes, but i not told, that the expenditure figures are weekly and are denominated in pounds. Textual Clarifications 6. Even though it is stated otherwise, the paper does examine a rather specific hypothesis: that it is possible to identify a statistical threshold that, once crossed, puts a developing country into the "developed" category. ')epending on one's redilections this is either an interesting hypothesis to examine or a persistent myth in need of debunking. Either way, it is a major element of the paper and deserve a bit more empha · ·sin the 1ntro uctory p ragraphs. 7. Some broad statements about changes in population density and employment with urban growth are made in the final section, with little or no empirical support. I refer particularly to the statement (page 76) that population densities increase as cities grow over time, and (page 81) that differences between opulation densities and employment concentrations grow as one moves into the city center from the periphery. Such statements cry out for documentation or, at the least, qualification. It would also be helpful to have a more complete reference to the ongoing study of city structure and mobility mentioned on page 81. Mr. Y. Zahavi - 3 - March 25, 1976 8. The assumption of h = 1.2 hours used in Chapter 4 (page 76) undoubtedly stems from earlier findings outlined in Chapter 3, e.g., Table 3.6, page 50. If so, a cro s- reference would be useful. Minor Stylistic Improvements 9. Another potential source of confusion is the periods inserted in many equations (pages ix, 54 and 60, among others). Perhaps I am not familiar with this notation, but my reaction that something was amiss diverted my attention from the equations themselves. 10. You tend, on occasion, to attribute to your readers a greater familiarity with US and world geography than perhaps is warranted. What, for example, is 'Tri-State?" (Appendix 5 t guess whether "Springfield II refers and elsewhere ) • I could no_ to a city in Missouri, Illinois, -1.assachusetts, or another of the 25 states of the US with suoh a city. "Monroe," if I recall, is in Louisiana. These gymnastics can be eliminated by greater precision in tables comparing these cities, or perhaps a footnote to the first one mentioning the others. '.!1.P?graphi~al E r ~ 11. The following typos caught my attention. Please review the text for others: (p. 4) to a future date. (p. 34 , first para.)~mponents. (p.40) where the proportion ••• decreases sharply with increases In motorization. {p.44) scatter of points. (p.56) "Figure °376" should be "Figure 3.16." (p. 63) temporally. (p.66) it may be deduced ••• OFGrimes,4 Mr. T . King, ECDPH March 25, 1976 Benjamin B. King, VPD Handouts from H.I.I . D. Meetin9 When Hollis and I went to a meeting at H.I.I.D. ~J,.-~- last month, I picked up among others the two attached /\,.nt- handouts . The author of the first, Mark Rosenzweig (Boston University? ) , made a good presentation. Basically, the hypothesis he is testing is that the number of children and their school enrolment is determined rationally in that it is affected by the v a l ue of their potential employment and their mother's, on or off the family farm. The results for India are pretty good and for the Philippines not so good . Please show this one to Mark, if he's interested. Attachments cc: Mr. Leiserson BBKing:gm Form No. 27 /) (3-70) INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION OUT GOING WIRE TO: MR. RAJ KRISHNA DATE: MARCH 24, 1976 5 MALKA GANJ DELHI 110007 CLASS OF LT /M SERVICE: (EXT. 5481) COUNTRY: INDIA TEXT: Cable No.: LETTER AND RESULTS ARRIVED STOP REQUESTING EXTENSION OF CONTRACT STOP BRIEF COMMENTS FOLLOW STOP FIRST WHAT IS DEFINITION OF RURAL STOP SECOND ARE TOWNS IN EXAMPLE TEN TO FIFTY THOUSAND RANGE OMITTED STOP IMPORTANT SINCE MUCH AGRO BASED INDUSTRY COMMERCE AND SERVICES OFFER DECENTRALISED/LOCALISED NONFARM EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN SUCH TOWNS COMMA WHICH ARE MANY IN NUMBER STOP IN MUDA PROJECT AND OTHER COUNTRIES TRUE EVEN OF TOWNS OF HUNDRED THOUSAND STOP THIRD DO DATA ALSO GIVE INFORMATION ON VALUE ADDED AND TABOR INTENSITY OF NONFARM ACTIVITIES STOP FOURTH TWO DIGIT LEVEL GIVE INTERESTING INSIGHTS INTO BACKWARD LINKAGES FROM AGRICULTURE STOP IS IT POSSIBLE THROUGH EXAMPLE BROAD REGIONAL CROSS- SECTION ANALYSIS TO EXAMINE DEVELOPMENT OF NONFARM EMPLOYMENT IN RELATION TO DEVELOPMENT OF FARM INCOMES AND OUTPUTS STOP BELIEVE MAIN SOURCE OF DEVELOPMENT OF NONFARM EMPLOYMENT IS THROUGH BACKWARD AND FORWARD LINKAGES WITH AGRICULTURE GENERATING DEMANDS FOR NONFARM ACTIVITIES AND EMPLOYMENT STOP THAT IS LESS EMPHASIS NEEDED ON DECENTRALISATION PER SE THAN ON LOCALISED DEVELOPMENT STOP THIS IN TURN GENERATES DEMANDS FOR AND (continued on page 2) NOT TO BE TRANSMITTED AUTHORIZED BY: CLEARANCES AND COPY DISTRIBUTION;- NAME M. W. Leiserson -. DEPT. Development Economics ~=-': SIGNATURE--:-;:;-:-=:-:-::-:: ' :-'-=fr- ,+ ---'-: .t;-'----M ' ,- L_~ t.J .:;__ . : :._: ~=:_:..:::w.__:...:...- - - 1 REFERENCE: .M DA:1\.rt For Use By Communications Section ORIGINAL (File Copy) (IMPORTANT: See Secretaries Guide for preparing form) Checked for Dispatch: - - - - - - - - - - - - - Form No. 27 (3-70) INTERNATIO NAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION OU TGOING WIRE TO: MR. RAJ KRISHNA DAT~ MARCH 24, 1976 5 MALKA GANJ DELHI 110007 CLASS OF LT SERVICE: (EXT . 5481) COUNTRY: INDIA TEXT: (Continued from Page 1) Cable No.: ECONOMICALLY JUSTIFIES WORKS ELECTRIFICATION ROADS CONSTRUCTION CREDIT AND SMALL INDUSTRY EXTENSION AND TRAINING ETC STOP FIFTH TABLES ONE TO SIX INFORMATIVE STOP CONTRAST WITH URBAN DATA SAY AT ONE DIGIT WOULD ALSO BE INFORMATIVE STOP SIXTH BOOK BY DESAI AND BAICHWAL MAY INTEREST YOU ON NONFARM EMPLOYMENT IN TRANA DISTRICT IT GIVES ADDITIONAL INSIGHT INTO PRIMARY AND SECONDARY WORK BY MALES AND FEMALES PUBLISHED BY !CAR IN 1969 STOP WILL WRITE STOP THANKS AND REGARDS ANDERSON INTBAFRAD NOT TO BE TRANSMmED AUTHORIZED BY: Cl.iARANCES AND COPY DISTR IBUTION;- NAME M. W. Leiserson DEPT. Development Economics SIGNATURE _ _ __ . "--....lo.L--,:...,_-+ ... , ~ ~-4-,.::_ _ _L_ N_. ,_ e.. .;; ~_____.___1 1_